Rational Ground by Justin Hart
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Susie Wiles, Calley Means and the MAHA Drama Unfolding Around Us
The man who helped bring RFK Jr. to Trump says lobbyists ran health policy under Susie Wiles. Some of it is on paper. Some of it is his word against…
2 hrs ago
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Justin Hart
12
1
They Buried the Lab Leak and Didn’t Need to Bribe Anyone.
In 2023 we reported that the CIA paid its analysts to drop the lab-leak theory. Three years of records later, that story turns out to be wrong. What…
13 hrs ago
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Justin Hart
28
3
5
Trump Told 60 Minutes Why We Lost
The war, the gas prices, the deportations, an amnesty deal, crypto, pardons, an AI boss and the gates of heaven. Six clips and my take.
22 hrs ago
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Justin Hart
25
4
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Stayed Home, Switched, Walked Away: How the 2026 Wave Was Built
Seven points from Trump voters who stayed home. Five from Trump voters who switched. Here's who moved, who held, and what Republicans actually lost.
Nov 7
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Justin Hart
15
9
3
The Vaccine Study They Called Junk Just Cleared Peer Review
1.47 million matched Florida adults. Pfizer recipients died at meaningfully higher rates than Moderna recipients over 12 months — mostly from causes…
Nov 5
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Justin Hart
29
2
10
Still Too Close to Call
Ninety-nine votes in North Carolina. Four in Minnesota. The races still being counted, and what happens next in each.
Nov 5
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Justin Hart
12
We Got the Call Right but the Scope Wrong
Democrats won both chambers, as our forecast said they would. But they beat our numbers by about 6 points, and 19 of 20 upsets went their way.
Nov 4
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Justin Hart
19
1
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If Florida Is Right, the Senate Is a Coin Flip
A 6-point Donalds win would mean the polls missed by about 1.5 points. Here's what that same miss does to every Senate race.
Nov 3
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Justin Hart
18
3
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Tomorrow Night, Live: How Wrong Are the Polls?
Where to watch, what to watch, and the last call on our $56 election special.
Nov 3
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Justin Hart
14
1
The Election Day Math
Early votes are already banked. Here's how big a win each Senate candidate needs on Tuesday to catch up, state by state.
Nov 2
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Justin Hart
17
1
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October 2026
Heads or Tails to Decide the Senate
Most of the close races are within the margin of error. So we flipped coins on six questions, and asked the AIs to break the ties.
Oct 31
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Justin Hart
14
3
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What if the polls are wrong again?
If this year's polls miss the way they did in 2024, state by state, Republicans keep the Senate. Here's how, and why history says don't count on it.
Oct 30
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Justin Hart
15
6
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