I am a small business that makes and sells candles, melts, room sprays and car air fresheners and I see it every show and it freaks me out. My sales are way down. I see a lot of browsing and little buying. I wish folks would stop buying at big box stores and buy from us little guys.
One contrast: Target went woke, very publicly. Walmart corporate tried to mind the store, and maintained a low culture conflict profile the last few years. Both companies are often sell similar/identical products.
My family members now refuse to shop at Target. I don’t believe my family is an isolated data point.
Among other matters recent stress evident in the repo market (overnight lending) suggests the financial party is likely to end soon as well, and this hangover is going to be epic.
Exceptional framing on the bifurcation nobody's talking about. The Renovo/First Brands 100→0 markdown cascade is the canary, but the inventory mismatch might be the real time bomb bc manufacturers still haven't acknowledged demand disappeared. When Chicago backlogs hit 2009 levels while S&P stays near highs, that disjoint usually corrects violently within quarters not years.
Powerful synthesis of the bifurcation. The private credit bit is especially telling: Renovo going 100 to zero in weeks exposes how mispriced shadow banking colateral was during the easy-money era. The unplanned inventory buildup since 2007 data is brutal becuase it means production teams are still beting on consumer demand that's already left the building.
I am a small business that makes and sells candles, melts, room sprays and car air fresheners and I see it every show and it freaks me out. My sales are way down. I see a lot of browsing and little buying. I wish folks would stop buying at big box stores and buy from us little guys.
One contrast: Target went woke, very publicly. Walmart corporate tried to mind the store, and maintained a low culture conflict profile the last few years. Both companies are often sell similar/identical products.
My family members now refuse to shop at Target. I don’t believe my family is an isolated data point.
Among other matters recent stress evident in the repo market (overnight lending) suggests the financial party is likely to end soon as well, and this hangover is going to be epic.
Exceptional framing on the bifurcation nobody's talking about. The Renovo/First Brands 100→0 markdown cascade is the canary, but the inventory mismatch might be the real time bomb bc manufacturers still haven't acknowledged demand disappeared. When Chicago backlogs hit 2009 levels while S&P stays near highs, that disjoint usually corrects violently within quarters not years.
Powerful synthesis of the bifurcation. The private credit bit is especially telling: Renovo going 100 to zero in weeks exposes how mispriced shadow banking colateral was during the easy-money era. The unplanned inventory buildup since 2007 data is brutal becuase it means production teams are still beting on consumer demand that's already left the building.
Not true here in the Midwest. Our local Home Depot was completely sold out of all Christmas ornaments weeks ago.
I'm never going to find a job again, am I?