The trends in gold and silver are very long and the short term always looks scary, like last week. Silver broke through a 50 year base top of $50. The bull markets in silver and gold are far from over. Instead of thinking days and weeks with these things, months and years need to be the focus.
Commodities are a different animal than stocks and bonds. Silver is a very well demanded metal for use in various ways. What you hear from China cannot be trusted...in either direction. We had Wuhan after all and that was a complete lie.
Fair point on the long cycle — I'm not bearish on silver long-term. The piece is more about why the 40% crash happened when it did, and why the fraud narrative matters for understanding the next move. You're right that China intel is unreliable in both directions, which is exactly why the Zhongcai story is so significant: it's one of the rare cases where we got receipts.
I have followed the silver market for years and you bring up some good points that many of the silver and metals writers don't necessarily show, linking them today @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
Thanks — that was the goal. Most metals coverage is either perma-bull or doom-and-gloom. The China fraud angle is the part nobody wants to talk about because it complicates both narratives.
It's more than the dollar debasement trade. Central Banks are still buying gold hand over fist. Something is in the air. It started with seizing Russia's assets.
As for silver, a lot of really big tech companies are looking at industrial supplies and wanting to secure silver...at least until the AI bubble pops. This time might be different. It was different for the inverted yield curve predictor.
Also, speculators going to speculate. Grifters going to grift.
The Russia asset seizure point is underrated. That was the moment every non-aligned central bank realized their dollar reserves could be weaponized against them. Gold became a sovereignty trade overnight. And you're right about industrial silver demand — the AI/solar/EV angle is real and growing, which is why the long-term bull case holds even if the speculative froth gets shaken out periodically. The question is whether the next correction will be fraud-driven or fundamentals-driven. Very different implications for entry timing.
In deflation, the music stops and people look for a chair, knowing every single asset class has been inflated by money printing. Stocks are too high, bonds are exposed to counterparty risk and excessive debt, they even tried real estate. The precious metals really are the safe haven now.
The musical chairs metaphor is apt. When every traditional asset class has been distorted by a decade of free money, the reversion process is going to be ugly across the board. Metals have the advantage of being nobody's liability — no counterparty risk, no earnings miss, no debt covenant. The question is whether gold and silver decouple from each other in a real deflationary squeeze, since silver's industrial demand ties it to economic activity in ways gold doesn't face.
The trends in gold and silver are very long and the short term always looks scary, like last week. Silver broke through a 50 year base top of $50. The bull markets in silver and gold are far from over. Instead of thinking days and weeks with these things, months and years need to be the focus.
Commodities are a different animal than stocks and bonds. Silver is a very well demanded metal for use in various ways. What you hear from China cannot be trusted...in either direction. We had Wuhan after all and that was a complete lie.
Fair point on the long cycle — I'm not bearish on silver long-term. The piece is more about why the 40% crash happened when it did, and why the fraud narrative matters for understanding the next move. You're right that China intel is unreliable in both directions, which is exactly why the Zhongcai story is so significant: it's one of the rare cases where we got receipts.
I have followed the silver market for years and you bring up some good points that many of the silver and metals writers don't necessarily show, linking them today @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
Thanks — that was the goal. Most metals coverage is either perma-bull or doom-and-gloom. The China fraud angle is the part nobody wants to talk about because it complicates both narratives.
It's more than the dollar debasement trade. Central Banks are still buying gold hand over fist. Something is in the air. It started with seizing Russia's assets.
As for silver, a lot of really big tech companies are looking at industrial supplies and wanting to secure silver...at least until the AI bubble pops. This time might be different. It was different for the inverted yield curve predictor.
Also, speculators going to speculate. Grifters going to grift.
The Russia asset seizure point is underrated. That was the moment every non-aligned central bank realized their dollar reserves could be weaponized against them. Gold became a sovereignty trade overnight. And you're right about industrial silver demand — the AI/solar/EV angle is real and growing, which is why the long-term bull case holds even if the speculative froth gets shaken out periodically. The question is whether the next correction will be fraud-driven or fundamentals-driven. Very different implications for entry timing.
In deflation, the music stops and people look for a chair, knowing every single asset class has been inflated by money printing. Stocks are too high, bonds are exposed to counterparty risk and excessive debt, they even tried real estate. The precious metals really are the safe haven now.
The musical chairs metaphor is apt. When every traditional asset class has been distorted by a decade of free money, the reversion process is going to be ugly across the board. Metals have the advantage of being nobody's liability — no counterparty risk, no earnings miss, no debt covenant. The question is whether gold and silver decouple from each other in a real deflationary squeeze, since silver's industrial demand ties it to economic activity in ways gold doesn't face.