What if the polls are wrong again?

If this year's polls miss the way they did in 2024, state by state, Republicans keep the Senate. Here's how, and why history says don't count on it.

Our forecast gives Democrats a 72% chance of winning the Senate. A lot of you have asked the obvious question: what about the polls? They missed in 2016. They missed in 2020. They missed again in 2024.

So we checked. For every state with a contested Senate race this year, we went back to the last three elections and measured how far that state's polls mi…