We Were Right All Along: Blue State School Closures Led to Catastrophic Learning Loss

It’s been nearly four years since the country was plunged into a chaotic and unnecessary experiment—closing schools in response to COVID-19. We fought against it from the beginning, warning that shutting down schools would lead to disastrous consequences for children, particularly those in blue states that remained shuttered far longer than their red-state counterparts. Now, the data is in, and it confirms exactly what we predicted: students in blue states suffered far more severe learning loss than those in red states.

The Devastating Impact of Lockdowns on Education

A new report from researchers at Dartmouth, Harvard, and Stanford shows that students in Democratic-led states—where schools remained closed for up to a year—are still facing severe academic setbacks. In Massachusetts, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, students remain half a year behind their pre-COVID reading levels. In places like Maine, Oregon, and Vermont, the loss is nearly a full year. Meanwhile, states that prioritized keeping schools open, such as Alabama and Louisiana, have not only recovered but in some cases exceeded their pre-pandemic scores.

The numbers confirm a stark truth: the states that refused to follow the science and instead followed the teachers’ unions are now dealing with an educational crisis of their own making.

A Clear Red-Blue Divide

This study is yet another piece of evidence proving that school closures were a partisan decision rather than a scientific one. In red states, schools reopened as soon as the fall of 2020, with many never closing beyond the initial shutdown in spring. Meanwhile, blue states kept kids out of classrooms through early 2021, leading to far greater academic declines. Eight of the ten states with the most severe learning losses voted Democrat in recent elections. Conversely, eight of the ten states with the smallest learning gaps voted Republican.

When we said in 2020 that locking kids out of schools would have generational consequences, we were called reckless. Now, the very blue-state leaders who championed these policies are suddenly quiet as the evidence mounts against them.

The Widening Inequality Gap

Perhaps the most tragic result of prolonged school closures is their disproportionate impact on low-income and minority students. Learning loss has exacerbated racial and class disparities, with Black and Latino students falling even further behind their white and Asian peers. Schools in poorer districts—many of which were kept closed the longest—now face the near-impossible task of trying to make up for two years of missed education.

Meanwhile, elite private schools in blue states found ways to keep their doors open. While middle-class and poor students were left staring at screens, the children of the politicians and bureaucrats who imposed these closures continued learning in person.

A Crisis in Student Absenteeism

If the original closures weren’t bad enough, another crisis has emerged in their wake: skyrocketing absenteeism. Student attendance rates have plummeted, with many kids simply never returning to school after lockdowns ended. Harvard economist Thomas Kane described the situation as a tsunami still rolling through schools. When you tell students and families for a year that school isn’t essential, don’t be surprised when they start to believe it.

What Comes Next?

The researchers behind this study recommend an urgent focus on remediation, including summer school and tutoring programs. But let’s be honest: no amount of tutoring will fully repair the damage inflicted by years of closures.

There is only one solution moving forward—never allow this to happen again. We must ensure that future pandemic responses do not sacrifice children’s education for political gain. Parents must demand accountability from the politicians and union bosses who orchestrated these disastrous closures. And most importantly, we must recognize that following the data means standing up for what’s right, even when the so-called experts tell you otherwise.

We were right all along. The question now is whether those who caused this damage will ever admit they were wrong.