Last night Republicans lost the Senate, lost the House, and lost governorships in Ohio, Georgia, Texas and Iowa. The only big state where they held the line was Florida, and even there the ground moved under them.
The scoreboard
Democrats flipped seven Senate seats: North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa and Maine. Two more are still being counted. In Mississippi, Scott Colom leads Cindy Hyde-Smith by about a third of a point with 98% in. In Alaska, Dan Sullivan leads Mary Peltola by less than a point with about two-thirds counted. Democrats have at least 54 seats. In the House, they picked up about 30.
What our forecast got right
We gave Democrats a 76% chance to win the Senate and a 96% chance to win the House. Both happened. Our favorite won 105 of the 125 races that are called or mostly counted.
What it got wrong
The size. We expected about 52 Democratic Senate seats and 238 House seats. Democrats have 54 Senate seats and 241 House seats called so far, with more still counting. Across 110 races with most of the vote in, Democrats ran about 6 points better than our forecast margins. In 2024 the polls in the close Senate races missed by about 3 points, toward Republicans. This miss was about twice that, the other way. Of the 20 upsets on our board, 19 went to Democrats.
The biggest ones:
South Carolina: We gave Darline Graham a 77% chance. Annie Andrews won by 4.5.
Texas: We had James Talarico by 2. He won by 12.
Ohio: We had Sherrod Brown by 2. He won by about 5.
Iowa: A coin flip in our forecast. Josh Turek won by 4.
The House: Democrats won or lead in 13 House seats we had leaning Republican, from Kentucky and Alabama to Texas, Indiana, New Jersey and South Carolina.
The Florida exception
Byron Donalds won the governor's race by 1.3 points and Ashley Moody the Senate race by 2.9. Our forecast had them at 4 and 6. Florida held, but 66 of its 67 counties moved toward Democrats from Trump's 2024 margin, most of all in counties with large Hispanic populations. Miami-Dade went from Trump +11 to Jolly +7.
Why
It will take weeks to sort out, but three things stood out on the night:
Who showed up. Early and mail voting leaned Democratic, and Republican Election Day turnout, strong as it was in Florida, didn't make up the gap elsewhere.
People switching. Margins moved even where the party mix of voters didn't, which points to people who voted for Trump in 2024 voting Democratic this time.
The economy. In early exit polls, cost of living was the top issue, and Trump's approval was underwater in nearly every Senate battleground.
What it means for polls
In 2020 and 2024 the polls underrated Republicans. In 2022 they were close. Last night they underrated Democrats by more than either. The lesson isn't which way they lean. It's that a miss of several points is normal now, and any race within that range was never safe.
We'll finish the count in Mississippi and Alaska and update the board as the last races are called.
Full results, race by race: members.rationalground.com/election-night. Members get the full forecast archive: rationalground.com.
https://timothywiney.substack.com/p/jabbedvotes-are-retarded-votes