Before we start: $56 gets you the whole election.
This is what a Rational Ground membership pays for. The forecast. The money tracker. The daily rebuild every morning before you’re awake. The work you’re about to read — pulling two independent datasets against each other, finding a flaw in our own counting method, and fixing it in public — is not cheap to do, and nobody is paying us to do it.
Right now it’s $56. That’s the election-season rate, and it is the best deal we have ever offered on this publication. Fifty-six dollars for every forecast update, every money-tracker refresh, and every piece like this one from now through November and beyond.
If you have ever opened the forecast page twice in one day — and our logs say a lot of you do — this is the moment to make it official.
👉 Grab the $56 membership now. It is the cheapest this will ever be.
New ad-tracking numbers from the Wesleyan Media Project back up the big shifts we flagged: money pouring into Kansas and leaving North Carolina. They also show two things our tracker can’t see — and one thing it got wrong.
Our forecast’s money tracker follows outside spending: the super PACs, party committees and other groups that must report to the Federal Election Commission when they spend for or against a candidate. It’s fast and it’s public. But it isn’t the whole picture.