Vindication: 3 years ago, I was lambasted for this... I was right

3 years ago, today, I published an analysis on data from the ILINet (monitoring system for respiratory and influenza illnesses) which seemed to indicate that something was going on in 2019 - well before the "official" start of Covid infection in the United States.

Controversy on Twitter about Coronavirus timing:

CDC seasonal flu surveillance data shows a substantial burden in the 2019-2020 season

Anomaly in Washington state suggests something unique is going on

Anecdotal evidence of COVID-19 in the US since last year:

• Physician's assistant turned away numerous people with flu-like symptoms at the end of last year and especially into January because they tested negative for influenza

• Independent reporter Adam Housley claimed on Twitter to have several sources in the government surmising that Coronavirus had already swept across the land

Data on the ground is garbage:

• CDC admits that their true influenza numbers take 2+ years to come in properly

• Most of the data you see on the CDC is actually extrapolated using regression formulas

Significant increase in influenza surveillance across the country:

• Flu season usually starts the last weeks of September and goes until April or May

• Current season seems very severe with the traditional late fall jump into October

---

Here’s the entire piece on Medium:

Has Cornavirus Been Here… Since Last Year!?

Controversy erupted on Twitter (where all controversies erupt these days) concerning the timing around Coronavirus. Not related to the discussion on time we had the other day… now question is… when did Cornavirus get here to the United States?

I made first intimations of this some days ago as I’ve been tracking and analyzing the CDC seasonal flu surveillance data. It shows that the 2019–2020 seasonal influenza “burden” has been substantial. Then I ran the numbers on Washington state and… well, see for yourself:

That is a distinct anomaly. As we discussed previously — garbage-in / garbage-out — but I think something unique is going on here. Some have suggested that the Seattle Flu Study might be skewing the numbers. The CDC recommends comparing states to regions for best analysis and so:

HHS Region 10 includes AK, ID, OR, and WA

It appears a similar spike in estimated illnesses occurred in the 2017–2018 season. Let’s dive in by state:

Clearly something is happening in Washington this past season.

Other anecdotal evidence.

I had a quick discussion with a physician’s assistant on line (completely anecdotal) that they had turned away numerous people with flu-like symptoms at the end of last year and especially into January because they tested negative for influenza. She asked aloud “was that COVID-19? Has it been here all along?”

The story was pushed further by independent reporter Adam Housley who claimed on Twitter to have several sources in the government surmising that Coronavirus had already swept across the land and that we may have already gone through the gauntlet.

First, let’s make this clear (as Adam did repeatedly) this should NOT stop your efforts on cleanliness and social distancing but the evidence is moving in an interesting direction.

I had some excellent exchanges with

Chris von Csefalvay

discussing these points. To be clear, these are just theories and budding ideas… it doesn’t necessarily change the data on the ground… but as I’ve said repeatedly… the data right now is kinda garbage. Even the CDC admits that their true influenza numbers take 2+ years to come in properly. This isn’t a global electronic exchange with instant notification when someone gets the flu. Data lags.

Indeed, most of the data you see on the CDC is actually extrapolated using regression formulas.

This morning tough — Chris posted this:

Some of the other indicators of some “event” occuring late last year and into early 2020:

Influenza surveillance across the country nationally shows a significant increase YoY from the 2018–2019 season and seems to be challenging the severe 2017–2018 season. For reference, the flu “season” usually starts the last weeks of September and goes until April or May.

Diving a little deeper, here’s how the CDC describes the data collected here:

Each week, approximately 2,000 outpatient healthcare providers around the country report data to CDC on the total number of patients seen and the number of those patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) by age group (0–4 years, 5–24 years, 25–49 years, 50–64 years, and ≥ 65 years). For this system, ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat in the absence of a known cause other than influenza.

Here you can see a flow of things when we include the down months in summer:

The current season seems very severe with the traditional late fall jump into October. Now look at Region 10, the HHS designation for the Northwest which includes Alaska, Idaho, Oregon and Washington:

Region 10 HHS Total Outpatient estimations

Now compare that grouping and we’ll break it down by those 4 states again.

You can see the jump in Oregon tests in the 2017–2018 season and then the bump in Washington State this past season. Still no direct evidence except to say that the data shows SOMETHING going on in WA.

The CDC also has data from WHO-related providers monitoring actual flu specimens taken and positive results. Here’s national and Region 10 flu tests (note the Y-axis). See the peak in December in the region there. (Line shows # of positive results, mark is the % for that week)

Bottom line: the implications might be significant. It could mean that parts of the country and thousands of Americans already have been through the Coronavirus gauntlet. Stay tuned!