Let’s go. 75 Days!
I’ll be posting detailed breakdowns here on what’s happening in the 2024 political race more and more frequently now.
If you’re subscribed to our substack here, you already know we’re running the Rational Ground political charts and analysis until the end of the election on November 5. So let’s dive into my current take on the race.
Where the Polls Stand
Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is currently ahead in the polls, but just barely—by about 2.5 points. Now, to put this in perspective, back in 2020, Biden was up by seven to nine points at this stage, and even Hillary Clinton in 2016 had a more comfortable lead of five to six points. Typically, Democrats like to see a lead in the range of 3-6 points to feel comfortable heading into the final stretch.
Compare this to what was happening in 2020 and you'll see that at this point in the race Biden was far ahead of Trump.
