Many of you have no doubt seen the headlines today touting massive job growth - 255K jobs added on a month-over-month basis for the Biden-Harris administration. Here are the true numbers you should be looking at straight from the sources.
You can make your own determination:
BLS EMPLOYMENT FOR SEPT 2024
2 SOURCES
The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) uses two key surveys to track employment: the Establishment Data (Current Employment Statistics) and the Household Data (Current Population Survey).
The Establishment Data is gathered from employers and focuses on job counts, wages, and hours worked, providing detailed industry-level insights. It tracks non-farm employment and excludes self-employed workers.
In contrast, the Household Data is collected from individuals in households and measures broader labor force characteristics like employment, unemployment, labor force participation, and includes self-employed and agricultural workers. These surveys can sometimes show different trends due to their distinct scopes and methodologies.
ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t08.htm
So, where do they get the 254K jobs added? Easy, ADJUSTED DATA showing 223K new private jobs + 32K new government jobs.
But that’s HEAVILY masked by SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS.
The UNADJUSTED NUMBER IS: 918K NEW GOVERNMENT JOBS and -458K PRIVATE JOBS.
And in the household survey is even worse!
Bottom line. Using the seasonally adjusted household survey there were 785K new govt jobs created and 133K private jobs created. In other words, according to the household data, 86% of jobs created in September were government jobs.
And if you use the Household survey unadjusted data: 1.3 MILLION GOVT JOBS vs. -275K private jobs.
Even Fed Chairman Powell was calling into question the veracity of the BLS numbers.
It’s a farce.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED GOVT JOBS
Establishment Data: Govt Jobs
Aug 2024: 23,390
Sept 2024: 23,421
32K new govt jobs
Compare to
Household Survey: Govt Jobs
Aug 2024: 21,431
Sept 2024: 22,216
785K new govt jobs
UNADJUSTED GOVT JOBS
Establishment Data: Government Jobs
Aug 2024: 22,541
Sept 2024: 23,459
918K new govt jobs
Compare to
Household Survey: Government Jobs
Aug 2024: 20,854
Sept 2024: 22,176
1.3 million new govt jobs
————
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PRIVATE JOBS
Establishment Data: Private Jobs
Aug 2024: 135,461
Sept 2024: 135,684
223K new private jobs
Compare to:
Household Survey: Private Jobs
Aug 2024: 127,962
Sept 2024: 128,095
133K new private jobs
———
UNADJUSTED PRIVATE JOBS
Establishment Data: Private Jobs
Aug 2024: 136,176
Sept 2024: 135,718
-458K lost private jobs
Compare to
Household Survey
Aug 2024: 128,526
Sept 2024: 128,251
-275K lost private govt jobs
"Even Fed Chairman Powell was calling into question the veracity of the BLS numbers."
Of course, he'll. His 50 bps cut in the face of this roaring economic numbers make his ilk's understanding of economics a joke, which probably is anyway. Worse, the inflation will be billed to that action of Fed.
Jerome turned out to be useful idiot, it seems.
All I need is one full time job in Chicago. That's it. I cannot go another winter working barely part time. I can't do this anymore.