In the unpredictable world of political polling, Atlas Intel distinguished itself as the most accurate pollster in the 2020 U.S. presidential election. While other pollsters missed key shifts, Atlas Intel’s data stood out, largely due to their digital-first approach and precise demographic tracking. As we approach 2024, Atlas Intel’s numbers again offer a nuanced view of the electorate — and if history is any guide, these insights could be our best preview for November.
Here are a few standout shifts from Atlas Intel’s recent 2024 crosstabs compared to 2020:
Surging Minority Support for Trump: In 2020, Atlas Intel picked up on Trump’s surprising gains with Hispanic and Black voters, a trend that’s grown even stronger in 2024. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters, for instance, has climbed from 36% in 2020 to 40.4% in 2024, and Black voter support has increased from 17% to 24.1%.
Slight Shifts Among Young Voters: Trump’s numbers among 18-29-year-olds have nudged up slightly, from 43% in 2020 to 44.1% in 2024. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has struggled to fully capture the same youth enthusiasm that Biden enjoyed four years ago.
Stagnant Democratic Enthusiasm: While Harris retains solid support among Democrats (93.1% in 2024), her numbers among Independents are lower than Biden’s in 2020, with only 43.6% expressing support compared to 48% in 2020.
Screenshot from 2020’s final poll via Atlas Intel
And now from 2024:
For subscribers I give you the FULL BREAKDOWN and comparison and give you access to the spreadsheet we’ll be updating election night.
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