The Debate: Kamala Goes Fishing, Trump Bites, But It's FAR from Over

Homer is really boring to read.

By contrast, the Bible, for all its complexity, can be wildly engaging at times—it tells vivid stories, but it also leaves much to interpretation and imagination. How old was Isaac when Abraham nearly sacrificed him? How far was their trip up Mount Moriah? A lot of the story is left up to you!

Homer? He leaves nothing to chance. Every path, every detail, every scar is spelled out, often to an excruciating degree.

Take Odysseus’s return home after his long journey. He’s covered in grime, blood, and dirt—unrecognizable to his wife, Penelope. As she kneels to wash his feet in a gesture of kindness to a stranger, she discovers a small scar on his body. She finally realizes it’s her husband!

Now, you’d think Homer would leave it at that.

Nope. He dives into a long tangent about how Odysseus got the scar, taking us on a painfully detailed journey that drags on for chapters. Homer doesn’t let the moment breathe, and he doesn’t leave anything to our imagination. (see Auerebach’s famous book, Mimesis for more nerdy insights!)

Unfortunately, President Trump shares that same tendency.

Last night during the debate, Kamala Harris threw a host of droplines in the water, baiting the former President, and reminding Trump of his worst scars—scar after scar. Trump, much like Homer, had to jump down every rabbit hole. (Did I include enough mixed metaphors there?)

She mentions the crowd sizes at his rallies—Trump leaps. She brings up January 6, blaming him for X, Y, and Z—he’s all over it. The Central Park Five? Hook, line, and sinker. I even posted on X mid-debate: "If he takes the bait on the Central Park Five, I swear I’m turning off the TV." Well, he did. But I stuck around to watch the rest anyway.

She was unimpressive, but Trump was extra-Trumpy.

Here’s the moment she taunted him questioning the size and enthusiasm of his crowds (he gets visibly upset and then spent 2 minutes trying to rebut it):

The Moderators' Bias Made it Worse

Let’s talk about the moderators for a second. They’d gathered their critiques into a single question for Kamala, asking why she’d flip-flopped so many times on so many issues. That was her one shot at accountability, and what did she do? She brushed it off in 30 seconds and moved on. No follow-up, no digging deeper.

Meanwhile, the moderators spent the rest of the night "correcting" Trump in real-time, often getting it wrong while letting Harris slide on everything. It’s like they were playing with a loaded deck, shooting Trump in one foot while he went ahead and shot himself in the other.

Sure, the bias against Trump was obvious, but let’s be clear: Trump has no one to blame but himself for how things went down. He’s going to have to own this one.

It's hard to walk when the moderators shoot you in the foot and you shoot yourself in the other one. - Me, last night

The Twist: Harris is Desperate for Another Debate

Now, here’s the twist.

Rumors are circulating that Kamala Harris and her campaign want another debate. And why wouldn’t they? Trump will jump at the chance, eager to claw back some dignity and correct his mistakes. But here’s the real underlying issue, and it’s one that not many are talking about.

We’ve talked about this before: 2016 was a unique election. You had two candidates, Trump and Clinton, who had 100% name recognition. On the Romney campaign, we knew that even Romney had a name-recognition deficit compared to Obama, who was one of the most recognizable figures in the world. That gap cost us—maybe by 1%, but it still mattered. (Motivation to vote is influenced in small measure by whether you know the people you are going to vote for—more on that another time.)

Now, fast forward to 2024. If Harris is pushing for another debate, it’s not because she performed well—it’s because her campaign knows they have a huge problem. Despite being in office for nearly four years, a significant portion of the American public still doesn’t know who Kamala Harris is.

Here’s the irony: this is the opening Trump needs. By keeping her out of the public eye, the Harris campaign has missed a golden opportunity. And with less than 60 days to go, there are voters out there who still don’t know who she is. They haven’t heard her speak, they don’t know her policies, and frankly, some don’t even know her name.

The majority of Americans aren’t political junkies. They didn’t all sit down to watch the debate last night. Sure, a chunk of likely voters did, but half? Probably not. There’s a vast pool of voters who are disconnected from the issues, and Harris’s low visibility could be the very thing that backfires on her.

A Game of Inches

As we’ve discussed at length, Kamala Harris is underperforming. Historically, Democrats have always outnumbered Republicans by 3-5%, and Republicans have had to rely on independents to push them over the line. But now, that margin has shrunk to near parity. We’re in a game of inches.

So when polls show Harris leading by just 1-3 points, that’s not a lead. In reality, it’s dead even—or worse for Harris, Trump may even be ahead. Polling biases often favor Democrats, and the theory goes that Democrats are more likely to answer polling calls in the first place. Regardless, what’s crystal clear is that Harris should be ahead by more if she were truly dominating.

And this is where it gets dangerous for Trump. Sure, Harris is underperforming, but not by much. In this game of inches, a small lead could be just enough to cost Trump the election. It’s not going to give anyone on the Republican side any respite. In fact, if you thought Republicans were fierce about fighting close elections in the past, this one is going to have all of us on edge until the very end.

I stand by my belief that Trump will do well in this election. But the truth? In the end, they won’t allow him to have another term.