PENNSYLVANIA

I thought I’d put down all the stuff going through my brain right now.

While both parties are showing lower early voting turnout compared to 2020, Democrats are experiencing a particularly steep decline in their vote-by-mail participation.

Democratic early voting in 2024 has reached only 53.1% of their 2020 levels, dropping from 1.7 million votes to about 907,000. Republicans, on the other hand, have maintained a stronger share of their 2020 performance, reaching 85.4% of their previous early voting numbers with about 530,000 votes compared to their 2020 total of 621,000.

This disparity suggests either a shift in Democratic voting behavior toward Election Day voting, reduced enthusiasm, or both, while Republican voters are largely maintaining their early voting habits from 2020

Bucks and Cumberland and Northampton - OH MY!

In a striking shift from 2020's voting patterns, three key Pennsylvania counties are showing remarkable early voting trends that could signal broader electoral changes. Across Bucks, Cumberland, and Northampton counties - all critical bellwethers - Democratic early voting numbers have plummeted by approximately 30% compared to 2020 levels. In stark contrast, Republican early voting has surged, showing a 14% increase from their 2020 performance.

(note: paid subscribers get access to the entire spreadsheet - see the bottom)

The numbers are particularly noteworthy in Bucks County, where Republican early voting has jumped 16.6% (from 36,796 to 42,904), while Democratic participation has dropped by 26.77% (from 89,093 to 65,241). Similar patterns are playing out in Northampton County, with an impressive 18.48% Republican increase in early voting. These trends, especially in traditionally competitive suburban counties, could indicate a significant enthusiasm gap between the parties and might foreshadow broader electoral shifts in this crucial battleground state. Stay tuned for more detailed analysis as we continue tracking these numbers!

Back to the early voting:

Early voting trends in Pennsylvania are painting an intriguing picture for the 2024 election cycle. While Democrats maintain their traditional lead in mail-in voting with 1,014,744 ballots (55.4% of returns), their numbers have dropped dramatically from 2020, showing nearly 704,000 fewer returned ballots. Republicans, in contrast, have demonstrated remarkable resilience, with their returns down only about 16,000 from 2020 levels, now standing at 602,601 (32.9% of returns).

What's particularly noteworthy is the momentum comparison to 2022. Republicans have added almost 339,000 more returned ballots compared to 2022's final numbers, while Democrats have increased by only 157,464. This surge in Republican mail-in voting participation, combined with strong performance in key suburban counties like Bucks County (where 2024 Republican returns are actually outpacing 2020 levels), suggests a significant shift in voting behavior. With return rates nearly equal between the parties (84.5% for Democrats vs 84.2% for Republicans), the traditional Democratic advantage in mail-in voting appears to be narrowing considerably in this crucial battleground state.

REGISTRATIONS

In a stunning display of last-minute electoral momentum, Pennsylvania Republicans dominated the final week of voter registration changes, with 9,451 voters switching to the GOP compared to just 5,602 for Democrats. This late surge has helped narrow the traditional Democratic registration advantage to just 281,000 voters - a remarkable shift from the pre-2016 era when Republicans faced a daunting 1 million registration deficit. This dramatic transformation of Pennsylvania's electoral landscape signals a continuing realignment in the state, particularly noteworthy given Pennsylvania's crucial battleground status. The numbers suggest Republican momentum has not only continued but accelerated in the final stretch before the election, potentially setting the stage for significant implications at the ballot box.

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Rational Ground by Justin Hart

Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania