Rational Ground by Justin Hart

Rational Ground by Justin Hart

One Week Out: The Whole Race on One Live Page

Democrats are 68% favorites for the Senate. A polling miss of 1.5 points flips it. Here’s the page I’ll be watching until the polls close.

Justin Hart's avatar
Justin Hart
Oct 27, 2026

The midterms are a week from today. So I built something for the last stretch, and it's free for everyone:

members.rationalground.com/countdown

It's a live page with a countdown to the first polls closing, our Senate and House odds, every close Senate race, the early vote, the money pouring in, and a slider that shows what happens if the polls are wrong. …

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