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A little hope before the polls close.
Florida's in-person voters today are about 27 points more Republican than Democratic, by party registration. That's redder than Election Day 2022 (24 points) and far redder than 2024 (15). If it holds, Byron Donalds is on pace to win the governor's race by about 4.4 points. Our forecast had him at 4.2.
Now say the evening breaks his way and he wins by 6. That would mean the polls underrated Republicans by roughly 1.5 to 1.8 points. Take that same miss and apply it to every Senate race in the country.
What a 1.5-point miss does
The Senate goes from a likely Democratic pickup to a near coin flip. Our final forecast gave Democrats a 76% chance, and that already allows for the polls missing either way. Lock in a 1.5-point miss toward Republicans and it falls to about 61%. At 1.8 points, it's 53%.
Alaska and Kansas tip to Republicans. Iowa, a dead heat in our forecast, leans Republican.
If every race went to whoever leads after the shift, Democrats would hold exactly 51 seats, the barest majority.
It all comes down to Ohio and Texas, where Democrats would lead by less than half a point.
At a 2-point miss, both flip and Republicans keep the Senate, 51–49.
For scale: in 2024, the polls in the close Senate races underrated Republicans by about 2.9 points. A miss that size would make Republicans clear favorites, with Democrats' chance down to about 24%.
One caution. Florida's polls have missed toward Republicans by more than the rest of the country in each of the last two elections. A big Florida night doesn't promise the same miss in Ohio or Texas. That's what tonight will tell us.
What to watch tonight
Most of Florida's polls close at 7 pm Eastern. Ohio closes at 7:30, and most of Texas at 8. We'll be live all night, with the polling-miss meter updating as the votes come in: members.rationalground.com/election-night
How we did this. Our election-night model with our final forecast (Nov. 3). We moved every Senate race by the same polling miss, kept each race's and each state's own error, and ran 40,000 simulated elections at each step. At 50–50, the vice president breaks ties for Republicans. Florida's Election Day numbers come from our turnout tracker, built from the county election offices' files, as of 1:30 pm Eastern.
Members get the full 2026 forecast, every Senate and House race: rationalground.com.
U missed too…https://x.com/joecool38053/status/2115063635831640315?a=tNWA5FKOzuSe2YEOxIY&s=61