Here is the rundown, hour by hour, as to what to watch for.
6 p.m. EST
Poll Closings: Parts of Indiana and Kentucky
Key Insights:
Tippecanoe and Hamilton Counties, Indiana: Early indicators of possible Midwest trends.
Indiana Governor’s Race: Watch for any signs of a Democratic gain.
7 p.m. EST
Poll Closings: Parts of Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
Key Counties to Watch:
Virginia Beach City, VA: Early reporting; watch for a GOP margin of R+2% or higher.
Loudoun County, VA: Crucial for understanding affluent, educated suburban shifts; Democrats should avoid losing by more than 15%.
Gwinnett and Fayette Counties, GA: Key battlegrounds in Georgia; suburban trends can offer national insights.
Baldwin County, GA: Potential Democratic strength indicator with Black and student voter turnout.
7:30 p.m. EST
Poll Closings: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
Key Counties to Watch:
Cabarrus County, NC: Strong Republican margins needed to maintain GOP control in North Carolina.
Nash County, NC: A razor-thin bellwether with rural-urban dynamics.
Ohio’s Senate Race and House Races: Key bellwether counties include working-class areas reflecting statewide sentiments.
8 p.m. EST
Poll Closings: Numerous states, including Pennsylvania and most of Michigan
Key Counties to Watch:
Bucks and Northampton Counties, PA: Swing counties with significant union influence; important indicators for Pennsylvania.
Cumberland County, PA: Republican stronghold; narrowing margins could indicate statewide shifts.
Kent and Saginaw Counties, MI: Suburban and working-class shifts with important Democratic margins to uphold.
Muskegon County, MI: Working-class trends reflecting broader Midwest sentiment.
Washoe County, NV: Nevada bellwether; balance to Clark County, reflecting economic and demographic changes.
8:30 p.m. EST
Poll Closings: Arkansas
Expectations: Focus on North Carolina and Georgia for a clearer picture.
9 p.m. EST
Poll Closings: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, and other states
Key Counties to Watch:
Maricopa County, AZ: Pivotal for Arizona; Republicans need R+3% margin.
Ozaukee and Sauk Counties, WI: Suburban shifts critical for Republicans to counterbalance urban Democratic support in Wisconsin.
Midwest Bellwethers: Including Wisconsin’s Ozaukee and Michigan’s Kent and Saginaw counties; these reflect broader working-class sentiment.
10 p.m. EST
Poll Closings: Parts of Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah
Key Counties to Watch:
Washoe County, NV: Critical for Republicans to counterbalance Clark County’s Democratic base.
11 p.m. EST
Poll Closings: California, Idaho (part), Oregon, Washington
Key Counties to Watch:
California's Competitive Districts: Watch for shifts in GOP margins in key House seats.
Suburban Dynamics in California Counties: Slow counts but indicative of broader suburban trends.
12 a.m. EST
Poll Closings: Alaska (part), Hawaii
Key Counties to Watch:
Alaska's Ranked-Choice System: For Rep. Mary Peltola's reelection prospects.
1 a.m. EST
Poll Closings: Alaska (Aleutian Islands)
Wrap-Up: All polling concludes, with critical bellwethers now in for comprehensive election analysis.
Has to mean Republicans should avoid losing by more than 15%. I live in Loudoun. This is deep blue.
Regarding Loudoun, do you mean “Democrats should avoid losing by more than 15%?”