I've been tracking every dollar of outside money in this year's Senate races, counted by when the ads actually air. With eight days to go, here's what it's telling us.
1. Republicans have the bigger checkbook
Groups backing Republicans have put about $1.07 billion into Senate races. Groups backing Democrats: about $650 million. That’s roughly 1.6 to 1.
2. Texas is the most expensive race in the country
$378 million and counting. About $298 million of it backs Ken Paxton. About $80 million backs James Talarico. And Talarico still leads by about 2 points in our polling average.
Money isn’t everything. Ohio is right behind Texas at $354 million.
3. The money just moved to the heartland
Three weeks ago, the money in Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska was barely moving. Now it’s speeding up faster there than almost anywhere.
In the last week alone, Lower Costs Now (a Future Forward group) put $30.1 million into Iowa, about 21 times its recent pace, and $14.4 million into Kansas. The Senate Leadership Fund network added $5.2 million in Kansas. Fairshake, the crypto PAC network, put $4.1 million into Nebraska.
All three races are within half a point in the polls.
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