$56 for the rest of the election.
This is the work your membership buys. Nobody paid us to match half a million individual early-vote records against a decade of voter history. We did it because “Democrats lead the early vote” is a headline that has meant nothing for twenty years, and we wanted to know whether it means something this time.
$56 for the year. That’s the election-season rate — the forecast, the money tracker, the early-vote analysis, rebuilt every morning from here through November.
👉 Join at $56. It’s the cheapest this will ever be.
We matched every early voter in North Carolina to their own voting record. Democrats are up in every group — most of all among people who skipped the 2022 midterm. Republicans are flat among regulars and down among occasional voters.
Every two years the same headline appears: Democrats lead the early vote. And every two years the same answer comes back: Of course they do. Republicans vote on Election Day.
Both sides of that exchange are lazy, and this year we can do better than shrug.
North Carolina publishes a record of every ballot cast early, with the voter’s ID, plus a separate file showing how each registered voter has voted for the past decade. Put the two together and you can answer the question that actually matters: are these early voters new, or are they the same reliable people who always show up, just voting sooner?
The Headline Numbers
Through Oct. 17, 501,318 North Carolinians had voted early, by mail or in person. At the same point before the 2022 midterm, it was 362,643 — a 38% increase.
By party registration: