Dem Pollsters Worry as Swing State Polls Echo 2020 Misfires

We’ve seen this movie before, haven’t we?

The polls come out, showing the Democratic candidate with a comfortable lead, pundits breathe a sigh of relief, and then Election Day comes around to deliver the gut punch - it’s a LOT closer than they asserted. 2016, it went Trump’s way, 2020, Biden eeked out a win (under a cloud of scrutiny).

Kamala Harris, the 2024 Democratic nominee, should be cruising right now, if you believe the narrative some of her supporters are trying to spin. But the numbers tell a different story, one that’s causing more than a few sleepless nights in the Democratic war room.

As we’ve noted now for the last few weeks: Kamala is UNDERPERFORMING.

Harris’s lead in the national polls is slim—just 1.8 points, according to RealClearPolitics.

By this stage in the game, the party was hoping for something closer to a 5-7 point cushion, a number that would put them comfortably ahead and stave off the nightmares of 2016 and 2020.

But instead, we’re seeing narrow margins in swing states and even some cases where Trump is leading or the race is deadlocked. For a party that thought it had learned its lesson from the past two cycles, these numbers are starting to feel all too familiar.

2020 Polls vs. Results: The Reality Check

Here’s a quick reminder of how the polls stacked up against reality in some key states during the 2020 election:

• Wisconsin:

  • Polling Average: Biden +6-8%

  • Actual Result: Biden won by 0.6%

• Michigan:

  • Polling Average: Biden +8-9%

  • Actual Result: Biden won by 2.8%

• Pennsylvania:

  • Polling Average: Biden +4-5%

  • Actual Result: Biden won by 1.2%

• Arizona:

  • Polling Average: Biden +2-3%

  • Actual Result: Biden won by 0.3%

• Georgia:

  • Polling Average: Biden +1-2%

  • Actual Result: Biden won by 0.2%

• Florida:

  • Polling Average: Biden +1-2%

  • Actual Result: Trump won by 3.4%

• North Carolina:

  • Polling Average: Trump +0.5-1%

  • Actual Result: Trump won by 1.3%

• Ohio:

  • Polling Average: Trump +1%

  • Actual Result: Trump won by 8.0%

The 2024 Polling Picture: Not Much Has Changed

Fast forward to today, and the 2024 polling data is showing us a similar pattern. Harris is up, but just barely. And in those all-important swing states, the numbers are nothing short of nerve-wracking for Democrats:

• Arizona: Trump leads by 0.5 points.

• Georgia: Trump leads by 0.2 points.

• Wisconsin: Harris leads by 1.4 points.

• Michigan: Harris leads by 1.1 points.

• Nevada: The race is a tie.

We’ve got a tight race on our hands, with some states already leaning Trump’s way and others hanging by a thread for Harris. The fact that Harris is only leading by 2-3 points nationally, when history shows Trump consistently outperforms his polling numbers, is reason enough for Democrats to worry.

What’s Driving the Numbers?

1. Shy Trump Voters: Even now, the phenomenon persists. Many Trump supporters still aren’t showing up in polls, leaving room for a potential surprise on Election Day.

2. Turnout Dynamics: Trump’s base has always been more motivated, and that enthusiasm could once again make the difference in battleground states.

3. Polling Methodology: Despite efforts to correct past mistakes, the complexity of today’s electorate continues to challenge the accuracy of polling methods.

Final Thoughts

Kamala Harris’s lead might look like it’s there on paper, but history has taught us that the real story often unfolds in the margins, in those crucial swing states where every percentage point counts. The 2024 race is far from decided, and if these numbers tell us anything, it’s that this election could easily defy expectations once again. Democrats should be on high alert, because if there’s one thing we’ve learned from the last two cycles, it’s that the polls don’t always tell the full story.