PDF file below!

Historical Overview

On November 22, 1963, President John F. Kennedy was assassinated while riding in an open-top motorcade through Dealey Plaza in Dallas, Texas. Shots rang out as the presidential limousine passed the Texas School Book Depository, fatally wounding President Kennedy and injuring Texas Governor John Connally (Chapter 6 | National Archives). Within hours, police arrested 24-year-old Lee Harvey Oswald, a former U.S. Marine and self-proclaimed Marxist who had briefly defected to the Soviet Union. Two days later, Oswald himself was shot dead in the basement of Dallas Police Headquarters by Jack Ruby, a local nightclub owner, as authorities were transferring Oswald to jail. Ruby’s dramatic killing of the alleged assassin fueled immediate speculation of a broader plot, even as officials scrambled to assure the public that those responsible had been caught.

(File:Warren Commission presenting report on assassination of John F. Kennedy to Lyndon Johnson.jpg - Wikipedia) Members of the Warren Commission present their final report on the assassination to President Lyndon B. Johnson on September 24, 1964 (White House Photo, Cecil Stoughton) (Chapter 6 | National Archives) (Chapter 6 | National Archives)

In the aftermath, President Johnson established the Warren Commission (headed by Chief Justice Earl Warren) to investigate the assassination. After months of hearings and reviewing evidence, the Commission concluded in its September 1964 report that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone in assassinating President Kennedy (JFK Assassination — FBI) (Chapter 6 | National Archives). The report found “no credible evidence” of any conspiracy involving Oswald, and no indication of foreign government involvement by the Soviet Union or Cuba (Chapter 6 | National Archives). It also determined that Jack Ruby had acted independently, with no evidence Ruby’s shooting of Oswald was part of a larger plot (Chapter 6 | National Archives). The FBI’s own massive investigation – spanning 25,000 interviews and tens of thousands of leads – had earlier reached the same basic conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin (JFK Assassination — FBI). These official findings from 1964 became the official historical account, asserting that the tragedy was the work of a single gunman and not an organized conspiracy.

Despite the Warren Commission’s firm conclusions, doubts persisted among the public and officials. In the 1970s, new inquiries emerged as evidence trickled out about CIA plots against Cuba and alleged mob connections. The U.S. House of Representatives formed the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) to re-investigate. In 1979, the HSCA concluded that President Kennedy was “probably assassinated as a result of a conspiracy” (Summary of Findings | National Archives). This dramatic finding was based in part on an acoustic analysis of a police radio recording, which the committee claimed indicated a high probability that two gunmen fired at the President (suggesting a second shooter on the infamous “grassy knoll”) (Summary of Findings | National Archives) (Summary of Findings | National Archives). However, the committee could not identify any other shooter or group behind the conspiracy (Summary of Findings | National Archives). Notably, the HSCA agreed with key parts of the Warren Report: it found that Oswald did fire three shots (and likely struck Kennedy twice) and that neither the Soviet nor Cuban governments were involved (Summary of Findings | National Archives). It also found no institutional involvement by U.S. agencies, stating that the CIA, FBI, Secret Service “were not involved” in the assassination (Summary of Findings | National Archives). But the HSCA raised the possibility that individuals tied to organized crime or anti-Castro Cuban groups may have been involved in the plot, even if these groups as a whole did not coordinate it (Summary of Findings | National Archives). The HSCA criticized the original investigation as inadequate regarding conspiracy questions, saying the Warren Commission had been too definitive in ruling out conspiracy (Summary of Findings | National Archives). In short, the HSCA’s report kept Oswald at the center of the crime but reignited debate by suggesting he might not have acted alone.

Over the decades, millions of pages of records related to the assassination have been made public. In 1992, Congress passed the President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act, leading to an independent Assassination Records Review Board (ARRB) in the mid-1990s that declassified vast amounts of files from the FBI, CIA, NSA, and other agencies. By the 2010s, pressure mounted to release the few remaining secret documents. The law set a deadline of October 2017 for all JFK records to be disclosed unless specifically withheld for national security or other critical reasons (Declassification of Records Concerning the Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy – The White House) (Declassification of Records Concerning the Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy – The White House). Several waves of releases occurred: in 2017 and 2018, thousands of files were released, though some were temporarily held back at the request of agencies (Declassification of Records Concerning the Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy – The White House) (Declassification of Records Concerning the Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy – The White House). Further disclosures came under President Biden, who in late 2022 ordered an “intensive one-year review” to ensure all remaining assassination records were released by June 30, 2023 (National Archives releases documents related to JFK assassination | Reuters). As of 2023, the National Archives reported that over 99% of the roughly 320,000 pages of JFK assassination records have been released to the public (FBI says it has discovered thousands of new files on JFK assassination | Politics News | Al Jazeera). Only a few thousand records (or portions of records) remain redacted or withheld, generally to protect identifiable intelligence sources or other sensitive details.

Timeline of Key Events:

• Nov 22, 1963: President John F. Kennedy is assassinated in Dallas; suspect Lee Harvey Oswald is arrested hours later. (Chapter 6 | National Archives)

• Nov 24, 1963: Jack Ruby fatally shoots Oswald during a prisoner transfer, in front of live news cameras.

• Nov 29, 1963: President Johnson establishes the Warren Commission to investigate the assassination.

• Sept 24, 1964: The Warren Commission presents its report, concluding Oswald acted alone and finding no conspiracy (Chapter 6 | National Archives).

• 1975–1976: Post-Watergate revelations (CIA plots, etc.) lead to new investigations; the HSCA is formed in 1976.

• July 1979: The HSCA releases its final report, concluding JFK was “probably assassinated as a result of a conspiracy,” with Oswald as a shooter but possibly with an unknown accomplice (Summary of Findings | National Archives).

• Oct 26, 1992: JFK Records Act becomes law, mandating release of all assassination records by 2017 (with limited exceptions) (Declassification of Records Concerning the Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy – The White House).

• 1994–1998: Assassination Records Review Board reviews and releases hundreds of thousands of pages of documents from CIA, FBI, NSA, etc.

• Oct 26, 2017: Statutory deadline for final release. President Trump releases many files but allows agencies to defer some; periodic releases continue in 2018 (Declassification of Records Concerning the Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy – The White House).

• Dec 15, 2022: President Biden orders release of remaining documents after review. The National Archives releases 13,173 documents in one day (National Archives releases documents related to JFK assassination | Reuters), part of roughly 17,000 records released under the Biden Administration (FBI says it has discovered thousands of new files on JFK assassination | Politics News | Al Jazeera).

• June 30, 2023: Following Biden’s directive, another tranche of files is released. At this point 99% of all JFK records are public, with fewer than 4,700 files still withheld in part or in full (FBI says it has discovered thousands of new files on JFK assassination | Politics News | Al Jazeera).

• Jan 2025: A renewed push for transparency – President orders any remaining assassination files (including those on related cases like Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr.) to be declassified “without delay” (Declassification of Records Concerning the Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy – The White House) (Declassification of Records Concerning the Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy – The White House). The FBI conducts a fresh search and discovers about 2,400 previously unindexed JFK-related records, now being transferred to the National Archives for declassification (US FBI finds thousands of new files on JFK assassination as Trump gets recommendations on document release | Reuters) (US FBI finds thousands of new files on JFK assassination as Trump gets recommendations on document release | Reuters).

This historical timeline shows how the narrative evolved: from the Warren Commission’s lone-gunman conclusion, to the HSCA’s suggestion of conspiracy, to the modern era of declassification aiming to address lingering suspicions. In sum, official investigations have never uncovered solid evidence of an organized conspiracy behind JFK’s murder – but they did leave some questions open, which helped conspiracy theories take root in popular imagination.

Analysis of Major Conspiracy Theories (paid member)

Read more

As we’ve been saying here… the economy is in bad shape. The Democrats were very good at hiding Biden’s mental decline — they were even better at distracting you from the REAL impact of the post-Covid economy.

To review:

• COVID stimulus in 2020 and BIG TIME 2021 under Biden increased your incomes by 20% or more.

• Retailers and services interpreted that as a boom at ramped-up hiring and manufacturing (remember all those boats log-jammed off the coast of L.A.?).

• The natural burst in demand increased inflation.

• Now, the government spigot has turned off and our incomes are just barely above 2019 levels.

• Companies survived for a while riding the wave of higher prices and some higher revenues.

• But now hiring has stopped and people are (rightfully) fearful for their jobs.

Welcome to the COVID backlash!

Then Trump was elected.

Soon, he’ll see the disaster up close.

A globally synchronized recession.

Here's a breakdown of the economic indicators, trends, metrics, and corporate anecdotes emphasizing the precarious economic situation:

I. Global Economic Weakness & Uncertainty:

• China Stimulus Failing: China's 10 trillion yuan stimulus package is proving ineffective, with industrial profits plunging, exports declining (despite heavy discounting), and weak demand persisting. The bond market isn't buying the stimulus story, with yields remaining near record lows. Copper prices, a key indicator of Chinese demand, remain stuck near recent lows.

• Germany's Economic and Political Collapse: Germany's coalition government collapsed amid worsening economic conditions, with the Prime Minister and Finance Minister disagreeing on how to address the downturn. The ZEW survey shows near-record low assessments of the current situation, with zero respondents rating it as "good." Volkswagen is closing factories, and BMW's profit margins are at their lowest in over four years. The 10-year swap spread in Germany turned negative for the first time ever, a highly concerning signal.

• Dollar Soaring: The US dollar is surging, likely due to a rising risk premium as global economic prospects worsen. This contrasts with the typical pattern of the dollar weakening during periods of global growth. The euro and yen, in particular, are weakening against the dollar despite policy differentials. Japanese firms are unwinding carry trades and parking proceeds in US Treasuries, further supporting the dollar.

• Global Bond Yields Crashing: Bond yields are crashing to record lows in China, Germany, and other markets, reflecting low growth and inflation expectations and high demand for safe-haven assets. Central bank attempts to control bond rallies (e.g., China's authoritarian tactics) are proving ineffective.

II. Corporate Distress & Anecdotes:

• Baowu Steel (China): Chairman warns of a "harsh winter" for the steel industry, worse than 2008 or 2015, advising staff to preserve cash and focus on survival.

• ArcelorMittal: Reports a drop in profits and warns of an "unsustainable" steel market due to cheap Chinese imports and weak domestic demand. Cut its forecast for consumption outside China.

• Volkswagen: Planning to close factories in Germany for the first time in its history, citing weak demand.

• BMW: Profit margins have fallen to their lowest level in over four years.

• McDonald's: First negative same-store sales comparison since 2020. CEO admits prices are perceived as too high and cites declining traffic in major markets.

• Aspen Technology: CEO warns the economy is on the "edge of a significant slowdown," with businesses becoming more cautious.

• Mizuho: Co-head of global markets confirms they are still unwinding carry trades due to US recession fears.

III. Key Metrics & Indicators:

• Negative Swap Spreads: Record negative swap spreads in the US and the first-ever negative swap spread in Germany point to serious concerns about future interest rates and economic prospects.

• Bull Steepening Yield Curves: Aggressive bull steepening of yield curves in the US and Germany signals worsening economic conditions.

• Plunging Commodity Prices: Steel and iron ore prices have crashed, reflecting weak demand and oversupply. Oil and gasoline prices are also falling, despite geopolitical risks and supply disruptions, pointing to weak demand. Diesel fuel use is contracting.

• Copper to Gold Ratio: Remains near multi-year lows, indicating deflationary pressures.

• Rising Repo Fails: A surge in repo fails points to collateral difficulties and rising risk aversion among money dealers.

• Weak Consumer Credit Growth: Consumer credit card usage remains exceptionally weak, indicating consumer caution and concerns about the labor market.

• Rising Continued Jobless Claims: Continued jobless claims are rising, suggesting persistent unemployment and a weakening labor market, potentially understated due to exhausted eligibility.

• Falling Industrial Profits (China): One of the largest drops on record, reflecting weak demand and the need for drastic price cuts to move inventory.

• Negative Foreign Direct Investment (China): Record decline in the second quarter, signaling capital flight and pessimism about the Chinese economy. FDI flows have been basically flat over the past year.

• Contracting Bank Lending (China): Chinese banks are cutting back on lending to the real economy, the first contraction in 19 years.

• Falling Home Prices (China): Continuing to decline, exacerbating debt problems for local governments and further depressing consumer sentiment.

• Weak Japanese Yen: The yen is weakening against the dollar despite the Bank of Japan's rate hikes, reflecting a rising risk premium and Japan's trade deficit. Japanese investors continue to unwind carry trades and hold US dollar assets.

• Weak Indian Rupee: The Indian rupee has hit another record low, despite interventions by the Reserve Bank of India, pointing to tightening dollar liquidity conditions.

These indicators and anecdotes, taken together, suggest a globally synchronized downturn is well underway. Market participants are repricing risk, and the optimistic narratives of a soft landing or a quick recovery are fading fast. The combination of weakening demand, industrial oversupply, financial fragility, and rising unemployment creates a highly precarious economic environment.

Trump is not going to be happy.

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Here’s the lone non-radical on The View trying to make the case that economic issues matter, but the ladies are STILL convinced it’s just racism and misogyny.

Below is a litany of retail and consumer industry stats and reports which show everything is not hunky dory and there are LEGITIMATE and SERIOUS economic headwinds for businesses and consumers.

• Declining Sales and Revenue:

  • Macy's: Downgraded sales forecast, expecting a year-over-year decline. Comparable store sales also projected to be negative. CEO cites "softness," "carefulness," and "macroeconomic uncertainty."

  • Kroger: Reporting declining sales, with consumers shifting to lower-priced items and essentials. CEO acknowledges consumers are pressured by reduced savings, inflation, and interest rates. Same-store sales shrinking.

  • McDonald's: First negative same-store sales comparison since 2020. US same-store sales down 0.7%. CEO admits prices are perceived as too high by lower-income consumers. Declining traffic in major markets globally.

  • Home Depot: Experiencing declining sales, particularly in discretionary categories like home improvement and renovations.

  • Wayfair: Reporting sales declines comparable to the 2008-2010 recession period. CFO expresses concern about the magnitude of the correction.

  • LVMH (Luxury Goods): First decline in revenues since 2020, pointing to weakness even among high-income consumers. Misleading statements attempting to downplay the downturn. Blames "uncertain economic and geopolitical environment."

  • Walmart: While experiencing increased foot traffic (likely due to promotions), overall sales are declining. Increased traffic to grocery suggests consumers prioritizing essentials and seeking value. Affluent customers shifting to Walmart indicates broader consumer distress.

  • Wendy's: Similar to McDonald's and Walmart, with increased traffic but declining sales.

  • Dollar Stores: Also seeing increased traffic but declining sales, a classic sign of consumers trading down to lower-priced options.

• Consumer Behavior Shifts:

  • Trading Down: Consumers are shifting to lower-priced items, essentials, and value options. This is evident in Kroger's and McDonald's reports, as well as increased traffic to Walmart and dollar stores.

  • Reduced Spending on Discretionary Items: Consumers are cutting back on non-essential purchases, particularly big-ticket items like furniture (Wayfair) and home improvements (Home Depot). Even luxury goods (LVMH) are experiencing a slowdown.

  • Price Sensitivity: While inflation has eased, consumers remain highly price-sensitive, suggesting ongoing financial strain. McDonald's CEO acknowledges the need to improve "value execution."

  • Cutting Back on Travel and Leisure: Airbnb reports slowing demand from US consumers, particularly for short-term vacation rentals. Delta and Southwest Airlines warn of weak demand and discounting during the summer travel season.

• Underlying Factors and Concerns:

  • Weakening Labor Market: Declining hiring rates, rising unemployment, and income fears are key factors driving consumer distress. Consumers are becoming more cautious as job prospects diminish.

  • Depleted Savings: Consumers have exhausted much of their excess savings from the pandemic period, leaving them with less financial cushion to absorb price increases or economic shocks.

  • High Debt Levels: High levels of consumer debt, including credit card debt, exacerbate financial strain and limit spending capacity. Rising credit card delinquencies are a major concern.

  • Global Economic Weakness: The retail and consumer goods sector is not just a US problem. McDonald's and other companies report weakness in major markets around the world. The interconnectedness of global trade and economies amplifies the impact of any downturn.

Key Takeaways:

The retail and consumer goods sector is flashing numerous warning signs. Declining sales, shifting consumer behavior, and rising delinquencies paint a picture of an increasingly strained consumer. While some may attribute this to inflation or interest rates, the underlying issues appear to be more fundamental: a weakening labor market, depleted savings, and high debt levels, all exacerbated by a shaky global economic outlook. These factors are combining to create a dangerous and unsustainable situation for both consumers and businesses.

Thank you for all your support. We have some exciting things coming now that we have a friendly ear to hear our complaints on the Covid years. More on that soon!

Major Takeaways:

• Trump outperformed targets in suburban counties, particularly in Pennsylvania and Georgia

• Democrats maintained strong margins in highly educated areas like Loudoun County, VA but saw erosion in working-class regions

• Key flips from 2020 occurred in Bucks County (PA), Washoe County (NV), and Sauk County (WI)

County-by-County Breakdown:

Arizona

• Maricopa County (Target: R+3)

  • Achieved R+2.3% (Trump 50.7%, Harris 48.4%)

  • Nearly hit target, flipped from D+2.2 in 2020

  • Strong performance in Phoenix suburbs helped drive the flip

  • Fell slightly short of R+3 target but demonstrated significant suburban shift

Georgia

• Baldwin County (Target: R+2)

  • Achieved R+2.2% (Trump 50.9%, Harris 48.6%)

  • Exceeded target slightly, flipped from D+1.3 in 2020

  • College student turnout lower than 2020

  • Black voter participation remained steady

• Fayette County (Target: R+10)

  • Achieved R+3.2% (Trump 51.2%, Harris 48.0%)

  • Fell short of aggressive R+10 target

  • Continued demographic shifts limited Republican gains

  • Suburban diversification trend evident in results

• Gwinnett County (Target: D+12)

  • Final margin D+16.5% (Harris 57.6%, Trump 41.1%)

  • Democrats overperformed target but dropped from D+18.2 in 2020

  • Strong Asian and Hispanic turnout maintained Democratic advantage

  • Slight Republican improvement from 2020

Michigan

• Kent County (Target: D+2)

  • Final margin D+4.8% (Harris 51.5%, Trump 46.7%)

  • Democrats overperformed target but dropped from D+6.1 in 2020

  • Young professional vote remained strong for Democrats

  • Some Republican gains in outer suburbs

• Saginaw County (Target: R+2)

  • Achieved R+3.3% (Trump 51.0%, Harris 47.7%)

  • Exceeded target, flipped from D+0.3 in 2020

  • Strong performance among working-class voters

  • Union household shifts evident in margin

Nevada

• Washoe County (Target: D+1)

  • Final margin R+2.3% (Trump 50.3%, Harris 48.0%)

  • Major flip from D+4.5 in 2020

  • Hispanic voter shifts helped drive Republican gains

  • California transplant impact less than expected

North Carolina

• Cabarrus County (Target: R+12)

  • Achieved R+8.0% (Trump 53.3%, Harris 45.4%)

  • Fell short of R+12 target but improved from R+9.4 in 2020

  • Suburban growth limited Republican ceiling

  • Manufacturing employment concerns reflected in margin

Pennsylvania

• Bucks County (Target: R+2)

  • Achieved R+1.2% (Trump 49.5%, Harris 48.3%)

  • Nearly hit target, crucial flip from D+4.4 in 2020

  • Suburban women shifts evident in results

  • Union support showed some Republican movement

• Cumberland County (Target: R+14)

  • Achieved R+9.7% (Trump 54.2%, Harris 44.5%)

  • Fell short of target, slight decline from R+10.6 in 2020

  • Military vote remained strongly Republican

  • Warehouse worker turnout impacted final margin

• Northampton County (Target: R+2)

  • Achieved R+2.2% (Trump 50.6%, Harris 48.4%)

  • Exceeded target, flipped from D+0.7 in 2020

  • Working-class shifts continued from 2020 trend

  • Hispanic turnout lower than 2020

Virginia

• Loudoun County (Target: D+15)

  • Final margin D+16.2% (Harris 56.6%, Trump 40.4%)

  • Slightly exceeded target but dropped from D+25 in 2020

  • Education issues drove some Republican gains

  • Tech corridor remained strongly Democratic

• Virginia Beach City (Target: R+2)

  • Final margin D+2.4% (Harris 50.6%, Trump 48.2%)

  • Missed target, remained Democratic but shifted from D+5.4 in 2020

  • Military vote split more than expected

  • Suburban shifts less pronounced than other regions

Wisconsin

• Ozaukee County (Target: R+15)

  • Achieved R+10.5% (Trump 54.6%, Harris 44.1%)

  • Fell short of target, slight decline from R+12 in 2020

  • College-educated Republican softness evident

  • Wealthy suburban trends match national pattern

• Sauk County (Target: R+2)

  • Achieved R+1.6% (Trump 50.0%, Harris 48.4%)

  • Nearly hit target, flipped from D+1.7 in 2020

  • Rural areas showed strong Republican turnout

  • Tourism industry concerns reflected in voting patterns

Let’s review where we ended up:

2024 Election Highlights and Key Takeaways

• Undercounted Trump Surge: Once again, polls underestimated the "stealth Trump vote," as low-propensity and populist supporters turned out in force across nearly every state. Many voters who skipped the 2022 midterms reappeared, surprising analysts with a decisive push for Trump.

• Historic GOP Popular Vote Win: Trump is on track to win the popular vote—the first Republican to do so since 2004. In a close race, he swept four of seven toss-up states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina) and is favored in the other three.

• Key Issues Driving Trump Victory:

  • Economy and Immigration: Roughly 60% of voters cited these as their top concerns, with Trump dominating among voters who prioritized the economy by a 20-point margin and immigration by 76 points. Abortion, though significant, trailed behind and couldn’t tip the scales for Harris.

  • Rising Economic Anxiety: High prices and fears over economic instability gave Trump an edge, despite Harris’s stronger favorability on issues like middle-class support and women’s rights.

• Dramatic Demographic Shifts:

  • Latino and Youth Gains for Trump: Trump made striking progress with Latino voters and younger generations (Gen Z and Millennials), while Harris underperformed with these groups compared to Biden in 2020.

  • Unexpected GOP Gains in Suburbs: Trump saw surprising growth in affluent, highly educated suburban areas, even in traditionally blue regions.

  • Harris Holds White Working-Class Support: While other key demographics shifted, Harris held steady with white, non-college-educated voters, matching Biden’s 2020 support.

• House of Representatives: Tight Race for Control:

  • Republicans hold a slight advantage in the House, though many races remain undecided. Democrats performed better than expected, particularly in West Coast districts that have yet to finish counting.

  • Notable Wins and Losses:

    • Republicans flipped key districts in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

    • Democrats flipped several seats in New York, including a dramatic turnaround in the 4th District, won by a slim margin.

• Senate Swings to GOP:

  • Republicans secured a 52-48 majority in the Senate, with potential to expand to 54 seats. This majority marks their strongest Senate control in years.

  • Candidate Quality Challenges: Despite improved GOP recruitment, candidate quality played a critical role. Kari Lake’s polarizing reputation cost Republicans a Senate seat in Arizona, even as Trump won the state.

• Gubernatorial Races: No Shifts in Party Control:

  • The 11 races resulted in no flips between parties, with Republicans retaining 27 governorships to Democrats’ 23.

  • Notable Democratic Wins: North Carolina’s Josh Stein won the governorship despite Trump winning the state, underscoring some Democratic resilience in state races.

Broader Implications: A Deeply Divided Electorate

• Economic and Cultural Frustrations Fuel Trump: Trump's appeal rested on addressing economic concerns, immigration, and a frustration with elites, resonating strongly with millions of voters seeking change.

• Harris’s Coalition Tested: Harris’s platform of stability and economic recovery resonated with women, college-educated voters, and urban communities, but failed to fully counter economic and immigration worries among a broader electorate.

• Redefining the GOP Coalition: Trump’s voter base expanded to include not just traditional Republicans but also working-class Black and Latino voters—a reshaped coalition that could influence GOP strategy for years.

• Likely GOP Trifecta Paves Way for Major Shifts:

  • With the House, Senate, and White House under likely Republican control, the GOP is positioned to implement sweeping changes. Trump’s administration could push for bold shifts in foreign policy, economic reforms, and an “America First” approach to trade and manufacturing.

Looking Forward: Trump’s victory signals a dramatic return, likely to bring ambitious, sometimes controversial changes that will challenge the status quo and define this new era in American politics.

And it looks like we’ll be winning elections for the foreseeable future. Here’s former Senator Claire McCaskill. She ALMOST gets it then she reverts to the typical Leftists nonsense.

The AP VoteCast survey of over 110,000 voters provides a comprehensive view of the leading issues and sentiments shaping the 2024 election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Here’s a breakdown of the key findings:

Key Issues for Voters

1. Economy and Immigration:

   • About 40% of voters identified the economy and jobs as the top problem, citing inflation-related concerns, especially around grocery, housing, and gas prices.

   • Immigration was the second-most important issue, chosen by about 20% of voters.

   • While Trump has positioned himself as the candidate to handle these economic and border challenges, Harris has criticized his stance on tariffs, arguing they would worsen inflation. She proposes alternatives like tax breaks for parents and homebuyers.

2. Future of Democracy:

   • Surprisingly, the future of democracy was the most influential factor for nearly half of voters, surpassing concerns about inflation, the border, or other social issues.

   • Trump’s criticism of the Biden-Harris administration and his stance on democracy was a core aspect of his campaign, although his rhetoric around “going after enemies” and his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack left 6 in 10 voters worried about a potential drift towards authoritarianism under another Trump presidency. Harris was viewed less as a threat to democracy, although roughly half expressed some concern.

3. Abortion:

   • Abortion was prioritized by about 10% of voters, with Harris leading on this issue. She emphasized access to abortion as a freedom issue, contrasting with Trump’s view that it should be regulated by states after the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade.

Economic Frustrations and Financial Stability

• Approximately 60% described the economy as "not so good" or "poor," echoing discontent from four years ago.

• Two-thirds of voters were particularly concerned about the cost of groceries, with about half also troubled by health care, housing, and fuel expenses.

• Personal financial stability is a mixed bag; 60% said their finances were steady, but 30% felt they were falling behind, a notable increase from 2020.

Desire for Change

• A strong 80% of voters desire "substantial change" in the country, with about 25% calling for "complete upheaval." However, there’s division over what form this change should take.

• Trump’s pitch involves a return to his previous administration’s policies, whereas Harris is framing her policies as future-focused and aimed at tackling new challenges.

Concerns About Trump and Harris

• Harris’s quick rise to the presidential race left a quarter of voters feeling she’s somewhat untested, though she aimed to leverage her experience as vice president to offset these concerns.

• Trump, however, faces skepticism over his polarizing style and authoritarian-like rhetoric, with 6 in 10 voters expressing some concern that he could bring the country closer to authoritarianism.

Closing Thoughts

This data underscores deep divisions in voter priorities and values, with stark contrasts in views on democracy, the economy, and social issues like abortion. The election reflects a polarized nation with significant anxieties about both the present economic landscape and the future of American democracy.

FULL WATCH-PARTY LIST HERE

Here is the rundown, hour by hour, as to what to watch for.

6 p.m. EST

• Poll Closings: Parts of Indiana and Kentucky

• Key Insights:

  • Tippecanoe and Hamilton Counties, Indiana: Early indicators of possible Midwest trends.

  • Indiana Governor’s Race: Watch for any signs of a Democratic gain.

7 p.m. EST

• Poll Closings: Parts of Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

• Key Counties to Watch:

  • Virginia Beach City, VA: Early reporting; watch for a GOP margin of R+2% or higher.

  • Loudoun County, VA: Crucial for understanding affluent, educated suburban shifts; Democrats should avoid losing by more than 15%.

  • Gwinnett and Fayette Counties, GA: Key battlegrounds in Georgia; suburban trends can offer national insights.

  • Baldwin County, GA: Potential Democratic strength indicator with Black and student voter turnout.

7:30 p.m. EST

• Poll Closings: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

• Key Counties to Watch:

  • Cabarrus County, NC: Strong Republican margins needed to maintain GOP control in North Carolina.

  • Nash County, NC: A razor-thin bellwether with rural-urban dynamics.

  • Ohio’s Senate Race and House Races: Key bellwether counties include working-class areas reflecting statewide sentiments.

8 p.m. EST

• Poll Closings: Numerous states, including Pennsylvania and most of Michigan

• Key Counties to Watch:

  • Bucks and Northampton Counties, PA: Swing counties with significant union influence; important indicators for Pennsylvania.

  • Cumberland County, PA: Republican stronghold; narrowing margins could indicate statewide shifts.

  • Kent and Saginaw Counties, MI: Suburban and working-class shifts with important Democratic margins to uphold.

  • Muskegon County, MI: Working-class trends reflecting broader Midwest sentiment.

  • Washoe County, NV: Nevada bellwether; balance to Clark County, reflecting economic and demographic changes.

8:30 p.m. EST

• Poll Closings: Arkansas

• Expectations: Focus on North Carolina and Georgia for a clearer picture.

9 p.m. EST

• Poll Closings: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, and other states

• Key Counties to Watch:

  • Maricopa County, AZ: Pivotal for Arizona; Republicans need R+3% margin.

  • Ozaukee and Sauk Counties, WI: Suburban shifts critical for Republicans to counterbalance urban Democratic support in Wisconsin.

  • Midwest Bellwethers: Including Wisconsin’s Ozaukee and Michigan’s Kent and Saginaw counties; these reflect broader working-class sentiment.

10 p.m. EST

• Poll Closings: Parts of Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah

• Key Counties to Watch:

  • Washoe County, NV: Critical for Republicans to counterbalance Clark County’s Democratic base.

11 p.m. EST

• Poll Closings: California, Idaho (part), Oregon, Washington

• Key Counties to Watch:

  • California's Competitive Districts: Watch for shifts in GOP margins in key House seats.

  • Suburban Dynamics in California Counties: Slow counts but indicative of broader suburban trends.

12 a.m. EST

• Poll Closings: Alaska (part), Hawaii

• Key Counties to Watch:

  • Alaska's Ranked-Choice System: For Rep. Mary Peltola's reelection prospects.

1 a.m. EST

• Poll Closings: Alaska (Aleutian Islands)

• Wrap-Up: All polling concludes, with critical bellwethers now in for comprehensive election analysis.

Arizona: Republican Momentum into Election Day

Final early vote totals solidify a strong Republican position:

• Republicans: 954,306

• Democrats: 758,342

• Others: 625,731

• Total early votes: 2,338,379

Current advantages:

• Raw Republican lead: 195,964 votes

• Republican vote share: +8.4% of current electorate

• Total early vote represents ~68% of expected turnout

Mathematical paths to victory: For Harris to achieve a statistical tie, modeling requires (according to Michael Pruser):

• 9% Republican crossover vote

• 97% Democratic retention

• 55% of the Independent vote (compared to Biden's previous performance)

Key factors:

• Election Day voting historically favors Republicans in Arizona

• Late-arriving mail ballots typically break Republican

• Projected final gap could exceed 300,000 raw votes

• Final electorate projections: Between R+8.5 and R+10

• Critical battlegrounds: Maricopa and Pima margins vs. rural gains

Nevada: Tight Race with Mail Variable

Latest Secretary of State report shows final pre-election numbers:

• Republicans: 410,179

• Democrats: 367,941

• Others: 310,972

• Total early votes: 1,089,092

Current metrics:

• Republican raw vote advantage: 42,238

• Republican vote share: +3.9% of current electorate

• Total represents 78.2% of 2020's total turnout

Three-day trends:

• Democratic mail reduced Republican lead by 7,000 ballots

• Clark County mail patterns suggest low trailing mail totals

• Frequency scores indicate diminishing returns on late mail

Remaining vote composition:

• ~300,000 votes expected between Election Day and trailing mail

• Historical patterns suggest even R/D split in remaining votes

• Republican turnout advantage projected to maintain 8-point lead

• Final raw turnout lead expected within ±5,000 of current margin

Pennsylvania: Dramatic Early Vote Realignment

Current mail-in ballot status:

• Democrats: 1,014,744 (55.4%)

• Republicans: 602,601 (32.9%)

• Democratic "firewall": 412,000 (vs. 1.1M in 2020)

Detailed comparison to 2020: Democratic changes:

• 2020 early votes: 1.7 million

• 2024 early votes: 907,000

• Net decline: 704,000 ballots

• Percentage of 2020 performance: 53.1%

Republican changes:

• 2020 early votes: 621,000

• 2024 early votes: 530,000

• Net decline: 16,000 ballots

• Percentage of 2020 performance: 85.4%

County-level analysis: Bucks County:

• Republican early voting: 42,904 (+16.6% from 36,796 in 2020)

• Democratic early voting: 65,241 (-26.77% from 89,093 in 2020)

Cumberland County:

• Showing similar 30% Democratic decline

• Republican voting up approximately 14%

Northampton County:

• Republican early voting: +18.48% vs 2020

• Following suburban county pattern of Democratic decline

2022 to 2024 momentum:

• Republican gains: +339,000 returned ballots

• Democratic gains: +157,464 returned ballots

• Return rate parity: Democrats 84.5%, Republicans 84.2%

Final week registration changes:

• Republican gains: 9,451 switches

• Democratic gains: 5,602 switches

• Current Democratic registration advantage: 281,000

• Historical context: Down from 1 million pre-2016

Election Day projections:

• Trump needs: 12-point Election Day victory margin

• 2020 reference: 30-point Election Day Republican advantage

• Critical factor: Suburban county performance vs. rural margins

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Today's Key Metrics to Watch

1. Arizona turnout patterns:

   • Maricopa County suburban precincts

   • Rural county acceleration rates

   • Late-mail party composition

2. Nevada variables:

   • Clark County Election Day turnout

   • Rural county Republican margins

   • Last-minute mail ballot returns

3. Pennsylvania indicators:

   • Suburban county Election Day turnout

   • Rural vs. urban turnout ratios

   • Mail ballot rejection rates

   • Early results from Bucks/Cumberland/Northampton

We'll be tracking these metrics throughout the day as results begin to come in. The early vote data suggests significant shifts from previous cycles, particularly in Pennsylvania's suburban corridors and Arizona's overall party composition. The question now becomes whether Election Day turnout patterns reinforce or reshape these pre-election trends.

Check back throughout the day for live updates and analysis as the results begin to paint the final picture of this election cycle.

Watch this space and my posts on X for some live sessions I’ll be apart of!

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I thought I’d put down all the stuff going through my brain right now.

While both parties are showing lower early voting turnout compared to 2020, Democrats are experiencing a particularly steep decline in their vote-by-mail participation.

Democratic early voting in 2024 has reached only 53.1% of their 2020 levels, dropping from 1.7 million votes to about 907,000. Republicans, on the other hand, have maintained a stronger share of their 2020 performance, reaching 85.4% of their previous early voting numbers with about 530,000 votes compared to their 2020 total of 621,000.

This disparity suggests either a shift in Democratic voting behavior toward Election Day voting, reduced enthusiasm, or both, while Republican voters are largely maintaining their early voting habits from 2020

Bucks and Cumberland and Northampton - OH MY!

In a striking shift from 2020's voting patterns, three key Pennsylvania counties are showing remarkable early voting trends that could signal broader electoral changes. Across Bucks, Cumberland, and Northampton counties - all critical bellwethers - Democratic early voting numbers have plummeted by approximately 30% compared to 2020 levels. In stark contrast, Republican early voting has surged, showing a 14% increase from their 2020 performance.

(note: paid subscribers get access to the entire spreadsheet - see the bottom)

The numbers are particularly noteworthy in Bucks County, where Republican early voting has jumped 16.6% (from 36,796 to 42,904), while Democratic participation has dropped by 26.77% (from 89,093 to 65,241). Similar patterns are playing out in Northampton County, with an impressive 18.48% Republican increase in early voting. These trends, especially in traditionally competitive suburban counties, could indicate a significant enthusiasm gap between the parties and might foreshadow broader electoral shifts in this crucial battleground state. Stay tuned for more detailed analysis as we continue tracking these numbers!

Back to the early voting:

Early voting trends in Pennsylvania are painting an intriguing picture for the 2024 election cycle. While Democrats maintain their traditional lead in mail-in voting with 1,014,744 ballots (55.4% of returns), their numbers have dropped dramatically from 2020, showing nearly 704,000 fewer returned ballots. Republicans, in contrast, have demonstrated remarkable resilience, with their returns down only about 16,000 from 2020 levels, now standing at 602,601 (32.9% of returns).

What's particularly noteworthy is the momentum comparison to 2022. Republicans have added almost 339,000 more returned ballots compared to 2022's final numbers, while Democrats have increased by only 157,464. This surge in Republican mail-in voting participation, combined with strong performance in key suburban counties like Bucks County (where 2024 Republican returns are actually outpacing 2020 levels), suggests a significant shift in voting behavior. With return rates nearly equal between the parties (84.5% for Democrats vs 84.2% for Republicans), the traditional Democratic advantage in mail-in voting appears to be narrowing considerably in this crucial battleground state.

REGISTRATIONS

In a stunning display of last-minute electoral momentum, Pennsylvania Republicans dominated the final week of voter registration changes, with 9,451 voters switching to the GOP compared to just 5,602 for Democrats. This late surge has helped narrow the traditional Democratic registration advantage to just 281,000 voters - a remarkable shift from the pre-2016 era when Republicans faced a daunting 1 million registration deficit. This dramatic transformation of Pennsylvania's electoral landscape signals a continuing realignment in the state, particularly noteworthy given Pennsylvania's crucial battleground status. The numbers suggest Republican momentum has not only continued but accelerated in the final stretch before the election, potentially setting the stage for significant implications at the ballot box.

SPREADSHEET FOR THE 15+ COUNTIES TO WATCH BELOW FOR PAID SUBS

Imagine being able to anticipate the election outcome hours before the major networks make their projections. Picture yourself confidently discussing trends and shifts as the results roll in, because you know exactly which counties to watch and what the numbers mean. From the suburban battlegrounds of Maricopa County, Arizona, to the industrial landscape of Macomb County, Michigan, these 15 counties are the bellwethers that could signal the next leader of the free world.

Well, that’s the plan anyway. We’ll see how it goes.

In this exclusive analysis, we'll unveil the critical margins needed in each of these counties for a Republican victory, based on decades of electoral data and the latest demographic trends. We'll explore why these counties matter more than ever, and how subtle shifts in voter turnout and preference could have seismic impacts on the national stage.

And here's the best part: At the end of this post, our paid subscribers will gain access to a shared Google Doc that provides real-time updates on the vote counts from these essential counties as Election Night unfolds. This insider access means you'll be among the first to spot emerging trends, giving you a front-row seat to history in the making.

Don't miss out on this opportunity to stay ahead of the curve. Dive in now, and equip yourself with the knowledge that could make you the most informed person in the room on Election Night.

Give me a comment below. Should we do a live broadcast and Zoom call?

Explanations for Target % in Each County

Key Insights:

• Arizona's Maricopa County is a linchpin for a Republican victory; flipping it from a D+2% margin to R+3% is imperative due to its substantial voter base.

• Georgia's Suburban Counties like Gwinnett and Fayette are battlegrounds for suburban voters, where shifts can signal broader national trends.

• Midwestern Counties in Michigan and Wisconsin, such as Kent, Saginaw, and Sauk, are critical for gauging the sentiments of working-class and suburban voters.

• Pennsylvania's Swing Counties, including Bucks and Northampton, are bellwethers for the state's outcome, making them essential targets for both parties.

• Suburban Shifts in counties like Loudoun (VA) and Ozaukee (WI) indicate the importance of appealing to educated and higher-income voters.

1. Maricopa County, Arizona

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: R+3%

• 2020 Results: 50.3% Democratic, 48.1% Republican; D+2% margin

• 2020 Total Votes: 2,068,144

• Why It Matters:

  • Bellwether County: Comprises about 60% of Arizona's total vote; pivotal for statewide results.

  • Diverse Electorate: Includes urban Phoenix, affluent suburbs, and rural communities; a microcosm of national demographics.

  • Demographic Shifts: Rapid population growth with significant influx from other states, potentially altering voter registration trends.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • Hispanic Voter Turnout: A large and growing Hispanic population could sway results.

  • New Voter Registrations: Tracking changes since 2020 may indicate shifts in party affiliation.

• Did You Know?

  • Fastest-Growing County: Maricopa was the fastest-growing county in the U.S. from 2010 to 2020, adding over 750,000 residents.

2. Baldwin County, Georgia

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: R+2%

• 2020 Results: 50.1% Democratic, 48.8% Republican; D+1% margin

• 2020 Total Votes: 18,251

• Why It Matters:

  • Demographic Indicator: Reflects the engagement of Black voters and young voters due to local colleges.

  • Bellwether Potential: Historically close margins make it a good predictor of statewide trends.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • Student Voter Turnout: Home to Georgia College & State University; student participation can influence results.

  • Black Voter Participation: High percentage of African American residents; turnout is crucial for Democrats.

• Did You Know?

  • Former State Capital: Milledgeville, the county seat, was Georgia's capital from 1804 to 1868, including during the Civil War.

3. Fayette County, Georgia

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: R+10%

• 2020 Results: 45.9% Democratic, 52.7% Republican; R+7% margin

• 2020 Total Votes: 71,993

• Why It Matters:

  • Suburban Shifts: Rapid diversification and suburban growth challenge traditional GOP strongholds.

  • Offsetting Urban Gains: Increasing margins here helps Republicans counter Democratic advances in Atlanta.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • White College-Educated Voters: Trends among this group can signal broader suburban shifts.

  • Minority Population Growth: Significant increases in Black and Hispanic residents.

• Did You Know?

  • Golf Cart Community: Peachtree City features over 100 miles of golf cart paths, and many residents use golf carts as everyday transportation.

4. Gwinnett County, Georgia

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: D+12%

• 2020 Results: 58.4% Democratic, 40.2% Republican; D+18% margin

• 2020 Total Votes: 413,865

• Why It Matters:

  • Demographic Bellwether: One of the most ethnically diverse counties in the Southeast.

  • Suburban Trends: Shifts here can reflect national changes among suburban voters.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • Asian and Hispanic Voter Engagement: Significant populations that could influence the margin.

  • Voter Registration Changes: Any shifts since 2020 could indicate changing political leanings.

• Did You Know?

  • Film Industry Hub: Gwinnett County is a popular filming location for movies and TV shows, including parts of "Stranger Things" and "Ozark."

5. Kent County, Michigan

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: D+2%

• 2020 Results: 52.0% Democratic, 45.9% Republican; D+6% margin

• 2020 Total Vote: 361,048

• Why It Matters:

  • Urban-Suburban Dynamics: Includes Grand Rapids; shifts here impact statewide outcomes.

  • Changing Political Landscape: Historically Republican but trending Democratic in recent elections.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • Young Professional Influx: Growth in tech and healthcare sectors attracting younger voters.

  • Economic Indicators: Manufacturing job trends and unemployment rates may affect voter sentiment.

• Did You Know?

  • Furniture City: Grand Rapids was once the leading furniture manufacturing city in the U.S.

6. Saginaw County, Michigan

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: R+2%

• 2020 Results: 49.4% Democratic, 49.1% Republican; D+0% margin

• 2020 Total Vote: 103,349

• Why It Matters:

  • Working-Class Sentiment: Reflects the views of blue-collar voters crucial in Michigan.

  • Bellwether Status: Close races here often mirror statewide results.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • Union Household Voting: Union members' preferences can influence outcomes.

  • Black Voter Turnout: Significant African American population in urban areas.

• Did You Know?

  • Stevie Wonder's Roots: The legendary musician was born in Saginaw in 1950.

7. Washoe County, Nevada

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: D+1%

• 2020 Results: 50.8% Democratic, 46.3% Republican; D+5% margin

• 2020 Total Vote: 251,956

• Why It Matters:

  • Balance to Clark County: Reducing Democratic margins here is essential for Republicans.

  • Economic Growth: Tech industry expansion is changing the voter base.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • California Migration: Influx from California could impact voter demographics.

  • Hispanic Voter Trends: Engagement levels may affect margins.

• Did You Know?

  • Reno Arch: The iconic "Biggest Little City in the World" arch is located here, a symbol of Reno since 1926.

8. Cabarrus County, North Carolina

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: R+12%

• 2020 Results: 53.9% Republican, 44.5% Democratic; R+9% margin

• 2020 Total Vote: 117,227

• Why It Matters:

  • Suburban Expansion: Reflects growth patterns in Charlotte's suburbs.

  • Maintaining GOP Margins: Essential for Republicans to secure North Carolina.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • New Resident Voting Patterns: Influx of residents may shift political leanings.

  • Manufacturing Employment: Economic factors could influence voter decisions.

• Did You Know?

  • Birthplace of NASCAR: The sport has deep roots here, with numerous racing teams headquartered in the county.

9. Bucks County, Pennsylvania

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: R+2%

• 2020 Results: 51.7% Democratic, 47.3% Republican; D+4% margin

• 2020 Total Vote: 396,234

• Why It Matters:

  • Swing County: High number of swing voters; crucial for statewide outcomes.

  • Union Influence: Changes in union support could impact results.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • Suburban Women Voters: Trends among this group are significant.

  • Party Registration Changes: Shifts since 2020 may indicate political momentum.

• Did You Know?

  • Historic Landmarks: Home to the oldest continually operating playhouse in the U.S., the Bucks County Playhouse.

10. Cumberland County, Pennsylvania

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: R+14%

• 2020 Results: 54.5% Republican, 44.0% Democratic; R+11% margin

• 2020 Total Vote: 141,595

• Why It Matters:

  • Expanding Suburbs: Growth from Harrisburg affects political dynamics.

  • Potential Democratic Gains: Any narrowing of margins could signal statewide trends.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • Military Voters: Presence of military personnel and veterans may influence results.

  • Economic Indicators: Warehouse industry growth and higher education employment.

• Did You Know?

  • U.S. Army Heritage: Home to the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle.

11. Northampton County, Pennsylvania

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: R+2%

• 2020 Results: 49.8% Democratic, 49.1% Republican; D+1% margin

• 2020 Total Vote: 170,942

• Why It Matters:

  • Historical Bellwether: Has voted for Pennsylvania's winner since 1972.

  • Industrial Transition: From manufacturing to service-based economy.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • Working-Class White Voters: Shifts here can influence statewide results.

  • Hispanic Population Growth: Engagement may affect margins.

• Did You Know?

  • Crayola Experience: The Crayola Crayon factory and interactive experience are located in Easton.

12. Loudoun County, Virginia

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: D+15%

• 2020 Results: 61.5% Democratic, 36.5% Republican; D+25% margin

• 2020 Total Vote: 224,976

• Why It Matters:

  • Affluent and Educated: Highest median household income in the U.S.

  • Suburban Trends: Changes here may reflect national suburban shifts.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • Tech Industry Employment: Large number of tech workers may influence Democratic support.

  • Education Politics: Local school policies could impact voter preferences.

• Did You Know?

  • Wine Country: Features over 40 wineries and tasting rooms, making it a significant wine-producing region.

13. Virginia Beach City, Virginia

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: R+2%

• 2020 Results: 51.6% Democratic, 46.1% Republican; D+5% margin

• 2020 Total Vote: 227,717

• Why It Matters:

  • Military Presence: Large population of military personnel and veterans.

  • Early Reporting County: Provides early insights on Election Night.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • Military Voter Turnout: Could significantly impact the GOP's chances.

  • Suburban Dynamics: Shifts here could indicate broader trends in Virginia.

• Did You Know?

  • Longest Pleasure Beach: Virginia Beach boasts the world's longest stretch of pleasure beach.

14. Ozaukee County, Wisconsin

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: R+15%

• 2020 Results: 55.2% Republican, 43.1% Democratic; R+12% margin

• 2020 Total Vote: 61,486

• Why It Matters:

  • Suburban Shift: Historically Republican but with decreasing GOP margins.

  • Counterbalance Urban Votes: Essential for Republicans to offset Democratic gains in Milwaukee.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • Education Levels: High percentage of college-educated voters trending Democratic.

  • Income Demographics: Affluent communities may influence voting behavior.

• Did You Know?

  • High Life Expectancy: Consistently ranks among the counties with the highest life expectancy in the U.S.

15. Sauk County, Wisconsin

• Target D-R Margin for 2024: R+2%

• 2020 Results: 50.0% Democratic, 48.3% Republican; D+2% margin

• 2020 Total Vote: 36,203

• Why It Matters:

  • Bellwether County: Often mirrors Wisconsin's overall voting behavior.

  • Non-College White Voters: High percentage could swing results.

• Key Factors to Watch:

  • Tourism Economy: Impact of the Wisconsin Dells area on local employment.

  • Rural-Urban Divide: Shifts may indicate broader state trends.

• Did You Know?

  • Circus Heritage: Birthplace of the Ringling Brothers Circus in Baraboo, which is also home to the Circus World Museum.

Election Night Timeline

First Wave (7:00-7:30 PM ET)

- Virginia Beach City: Need R+2 or better - Loudoun County: Cannot lose by more than 15 points

Second Wave (7:30-8:00 PM ET)

- Focus on NC counties (Wake, Robeson)

- Watch PA early returns

Later Returns (After 8:00 PM ET)

- Monitor Midwest battlegrounds

- Arizona/Nevada results likely delayed

ACCESS TO REAL-TIME SPREADSHEET FOR PAID SUBSCRIBERS

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(just a quick fun video for y’all trying to vote for Trump. Careful that ghostly donkey with the cackle switching your vote)

Historical Context

• 2016: Trump victory margin 77,744 votes (MI, PA, WI)

• 2020: Biden victory margin 42,918 votes (AZ, GA, WI)

Key Trend Indicators to Watch

• Gen Z male ("Trump bro") turnout

• Post-Dobbs working-class women voting patterns

• Black turnout and Democratic support levels

• Latino voting trends

• College-educated suburban shifts

County-by-County Analysis By State

Arizona

Maricopa County (Phoenix)

• 61% of state's total votes

• 2020: Biden +2.2%

• 2016: Trump +2.9%

• 2012: R+10.7%

• Key Demographics:

  • Working-class Hispanic voters (Phoenix)

  • "McCain Republicans" (Scottsdale/North Phoenix)

  • College students (Tempe)

  • Conservative retirees (West Valley)

  • LDS voters (East Valley)

• Victory Threshold: Trump needs R+3 minimum

• Note: Results typically take weeks to count :(

Georgia

Baldwin County (Milledgeville)

• Historical Significance: Former Civil War capital

• Demographics: 41% Black (down from 43% in 2000)

• Educational Institutions: Georgia College and Georgia Military College

• 2020: Biden +1.3%

• 2016: Clinton +1.7%

• Last Republican win: 2004

• Significance: Black and youth turnout indicator

Fayette County (Atlanta Suburbs)

• Features: Peachtree City's golf cart network

• Demographic Trend: Rapid Black population growth

• Voting History:

  • 2012: Romney +31%

  • 2016: Trump +19%

  • 2020: Trump +7%

  • 2022 Senate Runoff: Warnock within 1%

• Key Factor: White college graduate shift from GOP

Michigan

Muskegon County

• Location: Lake Michigan manufacturing hub

• Demographics: 63% white non-college, 12% Black

• Voting History:

  • 2012: Obama +18%

  • 2016: Clinton +1.5%

  • 2020: Biden +0.6%

  • 2022: Whitmer +8%, Abortion Rights +10%

• Key Factor: Working-class white women

Saginaw County

• Economic Base: Auto parts manufacturing

• Historical Significance: Former lumber center

• Voting History:

  • Pre-2016: Democratic since 1984

  • 2016: Trump +1.2%

  • 2020: Biden +0.3%

• Additional Stakes: Toss-up Senate and House races

• Key Figure: State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet

Nevada

Clark County (Las Vegas)

• Democratic margin declining three straight elections

• Historical Democratic Margins:

  • 2008: D+19.0%

  • 2012: D+14.6%

  • 2016: D+10.7%

  • 2020: D+9.4%

• Victory Threshold: Keep Democratic margin under 5%

Washoe County (Reno)

• Location: Northern Nevada

• Economic Development: $3.6B Tesla battery factory

• Demographics: 32% white college graduates (vs. 21% in Clark)

• Voting History:

  • 2016: Clinton +1.3%

  • 2020: Biden +4.5%

• Note: Recent election certification controversies

North Carolina

Cabarrus County (Charlotte Area)

• Features: Charlotte Motor Speedway

• Demographic Shift:

  • 2010: 72% white

  • 2022: 59% white, 21% Black, 12% Hispanic, 6% Asian

• Voting History:

  • 2016: Trump +20%

  • 2020: Trump +9%

  • 2022: Budd +12%

• Harris Victory Threshold: Keep Trump margin to 5% or less

Nash County (Rocky Mount)

• Economics: Median household income $56,000

• History: NAFTA-impacted manufacturing/tobacco town

• Voting Pattern: All presidential races since 2004 within 1,000 votes

• Recent Results:

  • 2020: Biden +0.2%

  • 2022: Budd +7%

• Additional Stakes: Rep. Don Davis (NC-01) toss-up race

Wake County

• Demographics: Median household income $97,000

• Victory Threshold: Keep margin within 20 points

• Key Metrics:

  • Election day vs. early vote margins

  • High-income precinct changes

Pennsylvania

Bucks County (Philadelphia Suburbs)

• Demographics: 50% non-college white electorate

• Recent Trump visit: McDonald's in Feasterville-Trevose

• Voting History:

  • 2016: Clinton +0.8%

  • 2020: Biden +4.4%

• Key Factor: Union influence (Teamsters, IAFF)

• Note: Recent GOP voter registration advantage

Cumberland County (Harrisburg Area)

• Trends: Growing tech/logistics hub

• Voting History:

  • 2016: Trump +18%

  • 2020: Trump +11%

  • 2022: Shapiro +8%

• Notable: 23% Haley primary vote

• Harris Strategy: Need single-digit margin

Northampton County (Lehigh Valley)

• Perfect Presidential Bellwether: Since 1972

• Demographics: 30% Hispanic in Bethlehem

• History: Bethlehem Steel closure (2003)

• Voting Pattern:

  • 2016: Trump +4%

  • 2020: Biden +1.2%

• Additional Stakes: Rep. Susan Wild toss-up race

Erie County

• Noted as Pennsylvania's biggest bellwether

• Victory Threshold: R+2 minimum

Wisconsin

Brown County

• Key Metrics: Strong manufacturing presence, union households

• Victory Threshold: R+8 minimum

Sauk County

• History: Ringling Brothers circus birthplace

• Demographics: 70% non-college white voters

• Voting History:

  • 2016: Trump +0.4%

  • 2020: Biden +1.7%

• Key Factor: Democratic field organizing effectiveness

Ozaukee County (Milwaukee Suburbs)

• Region: Part of "WOW" counties

• Demographics: Highest college-educated white population outside Dane County

• Voting History:

  • 2012: Romney +30%

  • 2016: Trump +19%

  • 2020: Trump +12%

• Strategic Importance: Must offset rural trends

Election Night Timeline

First Wave (7:00-7:30 PM ET)

1. Virginia Beach City

   • Need R+2 or better

   • Historical Context:

     • 2000: R+14.3%

     • 2016: R+3.5%

     • 2020: D+5.4%

2. Loudoun County

   • Cannot lose by more than 15 points

   • Rising Asian-American population

   • High-income economic voters

Second Wave (7:30-8:00 PM ET)

• Focus on NC counties (Wake, Robeson)

• Watch PA early returns

Later Returns (After 8:00 PM ET)

• Monitor Midwest battlegrounds

• Arizona/Nevada results likely delayed

Victory Requirements By State

Pennsylvania Path

• Northampton: R+2 minimum

• Luzerne: R+15 minimum

• Montgomery: Keep loss <20 points

Michigan Requirements

• Kent: Within 5 points

• Macomb: R+8 minimum

• Wayne: Turnout under 62%

Wisconsin Necessities

• Waukesha: R+25 minimum

• Kenosha: Must win

• Brown: R+8 minimum

Victory Scenarios

Scenario 1: Hispanic Shift

• Clark County, NV under D+5

• Maricopa County R+3

• Miami-Dade competitive

Scenario 2: Suburban Recovery

• Virginia Beach City R+2

• Loudoun County loss <15

• Oakland County loss <12

Scenario 3: Rural Surge

• Cambria County R+40

• Robeson County R+20

• Erie County R+2

Methodology Notes

• Data Sources: 2000-2020 election returns, Census data

• Margin of Error: ±3% county level, ±4% precinct level

• Assumes turnout similar to 2020

• Third party vote under 2%

The latest employment report underscores this reality, with just a meager 12,000 jobs added in October 2024—and that’s largely thanks to government hiring. If not for the 40,000 new government jobs, these numbers would look even worse.

Here’s a breakdown of the latest data that the administration doesn’t want to highlight:

Establishment Survey Highlights

• Total Private Sector: 28,000 jobs lost—a clear sign of trouble for the core of our economy.

• Goods-Producing Sector: 37,000 jobs lost, with manufacturing hit hardest.

  • Construction: Added just 8,000 jobs, a painfully low number for an industry that typically drives growth.

  • Manufacturing: Down by a staggering 46,000 jobs—a blow to American industry.

• Retail Trade: Lost 1,000 jobs, indicating that consumer spending may be faltering.

• Transportation and Warehousing: Down 4,000 jobs, another worrying sign as logistics slow.

• Temporary Help Services: Plummeted by 49,000 jobs, a typical canary in the coal mine for future employment trends.

• Healthcare: Added 51,000 jobs, providing some stability, yet not enough to offset broader declines.

• Government Jobs: Increased by 40,000—masking deeper problems in the private sector.

Household Survey Red Flags

The Household Survey paints an even bleaker picture:

• Labor Force: The labor force shrank by 220,000 people, a worrying sign of dwindling participation.

• Employed Individuals: Down by 368,000—indicating that job losses are widespread.

• Unemployed Individuals: Increased by 150,000, pushing the unemployment rate up and signaling that more Americans are struggling to find work.

The Bottom Line

In the private sector, we’re witnessing massive job losses across key industries, with temporary work plummeting and manufacturing facing steep declines. Construction is barely holding on, and retail is showing signs of strain. Meanwhile, government hiring is propping up the headline numbers, hiding the full extent of the economic downturn.

These aren’t just statistics; they’re a reflection of an economy that’s struggling under the weight of years of misguided policies and economic mismanagement. The numbers speak for themselves: private sector jobs are slipping, government jobs are bloating, and the labor force is contracting.

This isn’t sustainable, and it’s time for a serious course correction.

VOTE TUESDAY!

Here are a few standout shifts from Atlas Intel’s recent 2024 crosstabs compared to 2020:

• Surging Minority Support for Trump: In 2020, Atlas Intel picked up on Trump’s surprising gains with Hispanic and Black voters, a trend that’s grown even stronger in 2024. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters, for instance, has climbed from 36% in 2020 to 40.4% in 2024, and Black voter support has increased from 17% to 24.1%.

• Slight Shifts Among Young Voters: Trump’s numbers among 18-29-year-olds have nudged up slightly, from 43% in 2020 to 44.1% in 2024. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has struggled to fully capture the same youth enthusiasm that Biden enjoyed four years ago.

• Stagnant Democratic Enthusiasm: While Harris retains solid support among Democrats (93.1% in 2024), her numbers among Independents are lower than Biden’s in 2020, with only 43.6% expressing support compared to 48% in 2020.

Screenshot from 2020’s final poll via Atlas Intel

And now from 2024:

For subscribers I give you the FULL BREAKDOWN and comparison and give you access to the spreadsheet we’ll be updating election night.

SPREADSHEET BELOW

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This analysis examines 24 years of presidential election data (2000-2020) through a Republican strategic lens, identifying the critical county-level thresholds needed for a GOP victory in 2024. By analyzing historical trends, demographic shifts, and recent voting patterns, we've identified key markers that would signal a Republican path to 270 electoral votes.

Understanding the Strategic Framework

Why County-Level Analysis Matters

The 2024 election, like 2016 and 2020, will likely be decided by narrow margins in a handful of swing states. County-level analysis provides earlier and more granular indicators than statewide numbers. For Republicans, understanding these patterns is crucial because:

1. GOP victory requires overperforming in rural/exurban areas to offset Democratic urban advantages

2. Suburban shifts can be detected at the county level before they appear in state totals

3. Hispanic and working-class voter trends appear first in specific counties

The Mathematics of Victory

For a Republican victory, the formula typically requires:

• Rural margins 8-12 points better than 2020

• Suburban losses no worse than 2016 levels

• Hispanic support at least 8-10 points higher than 2020

• Working-class white turnout matching or exceeding 2016

Key Early Warning Systems

SPREADSHEET BELOW

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Today, my reading list includes insights on voter sentiment, strategic campaign choices, and some eye-opening socio-economic shifts. Here’s what’s on the docket:

First up, Will Scare Tactics Drive Voters to Harris? Doubtful, which critiques the use of fear in campaigns, questioning whether it actually translates to voter support or just noise.

Next, 20,000 Out-of-Towners Fill MSG for Trump explores Trump’s growing influence and the way simplistic labels can often obscure more complex challenges to democracy. (They’re overthinking this.)

In a call for reform, my friend Cleta Mitchell writes in Congress Must Do More To Prevent Noncitizens Voting and argues that the integrity of the electoral process is under threat and calls for decisive legislative action.

Over in Arizona and Nevada, The Young Voters Harris Desperately Needs Out West looks at Generation Z’s potential sway in the election and Harris’s efforts to capture their support.

Another intriguing read, As the Left Attacks, Trump Becomes More Popular, delves into how criticism from the left is paradoxically boosting Trump’s popularity. (SHOCKER!)

In a critique of campaign choices, Harris Leans Into a Losing Strategy questions the reasoning behind certain decisions in Harris’s campaign.

What If Harris Gets Away With It? speculates on the long-term consequences of Harris’s political maneuvers, raising interesting questions on accountability.

Beyond politics, Peak Population Coming Sooner Than We Think? discusses the potential impacts of declining global birth rates on economic and social structures worldwide.

In an exploration of inflation’s impact, Fun Out, Necessities In for Low, Middle-Income Americans reveals how many households are prioritizing essentials over discretionary spending.

Finally, How DEI Corrupted the NIH critiques recent diversity initiatives within the NIH, raising questions about the impact of social goals on scientific rigor.

Plenty of perspectives to mull over as we move deeper into election season and beyond.

HOLY COW!

We got Pennsylvania voter registration data.

It’s possibly the BIGGEST gain the Republican Party has ever achieved at one time.

It’s magnificent.

It’s an earthquake.

- @ScottPresler

As the 2024 elections approach, the yearly total shifts in voter registrations across Pennsylvania reveal significant changes in party affiliation that could impact the political landscape. Let’s dive into the numbers and analyze the shifts from the start of the year.

Overview of Yearly Changes

The following data outlines the movements in voter registrations for 2024:

• To Democratic from Republican: 27,752

• To Democratic from Other: 46,716

• To Republican from Democratic: 70,227

• To Republican from Other: 44,398

County-Specific Insights

Key Counties Overview

Analysis and Insights

The yearly totals for voter registration shifts in Pennsylvania showcase a state undergoing notable changes in party allegiance. With Republicans gaining a significant number of voters from Democrats and other parties, the upcoming elections promise to be highly contested.

As we continue to analyze these shifts, the strategic responses from both parties will be critical in shaping the electoral landscape in Pennsylvania. Stay tuned for further updates and insights as the election draws near!

The Beige Book, released in October 2024, shows a significant shift from May 2024, where almost all districts reported economic expansion. By July, cracks began to appear, with some districts downgrading their assessments to flat or even slight contractions. September brought a sea of red, with most districts reporting outright economic decline, particularly in manufacturing activity.

Here’s a short clip of our friend Jeff Snider over at Eurodollar University explaining it in great detail:

This trend continued into October, with little improvement and most districts remaining in contractionary territory. The report highlights a worrying lack of hiring, growing concerns about potential layoffs, and a shift in consumer spending towards less expensive goods, all pointing to an economy struggling to gain traction.

This paints a stark contrast to the "soft landing" narrative being pushed by some. The Fed's own data suggests that the US economy is in a much more precarious position than many realize.

Here's a detailed breakdown of the key concerns highlighted by the Beige Book and other indicators from the past 2 weeks

Global Economic Slowdown & Recession Concerns: A global slowdown is hitting hard, with demand for goods plummeting and multiple indicators pointing towards potential recession.

• Global Demand: Worldwide demand for vital economic goods has nosedived by 50%, signaling a significant global economic slowdown.

• ASML: Bookings for ASML, Europe's most valuable tech company and a key chipmaking equipment supplier, plunged by over 50% in Q3 2024 compared to the previous quarter, missing analyst expectations and indicating a major shift in global chip demand.

• LVMH: LVMH, a luxury goods giant, reported a 3% year-over-year revenue decline in Q3 2024, marking its first revenue drop since 2020 and reflecting a weakening in high-end consumer spending.

• Oil Prices: Oil prices have fallen significantly (WTI below $70 per barrel), driven by weak demand despite stimulus efforts in China and elsewhere.

• IMF Forecast: The IMF downgraded its global growth forecast for 2025, citing risks like wars, trade protectionism, and financial market volatility.

• Recession Signals: Multiple indicators point towards a potential recession, including rising loan losses, declining manufacturing activity, weak consumer spending, and a softening labor market.

Labor Market Weakness & Consumer Distress: A weakening labor market is fueling consumer anxieties, leading to decreased spending and rising financial distress.

• Hiring Freeze: Many companies are experiencing a hiring freeze, focusing on replacing existing employees rather than expanding their workforce.

• Job Security Fears: Consumers report increasing pessimism about job security and the ability to find new jobs if they are laid off.

• Consumer Spending Shifts: Consumers are shifting their spending away from discretionary items towards essential goods and services due to lost purchasing power and economic uncertainty.

• Loan Losses: Banks are reporting a surge in loan losses, particularly in consumer loans like credit cards and auto loans, indicating financial stress among consumers.

• Ally Financial: Ally Financial tightened lending criteria for auto loans due to elevated charge-offs, suggesting growing difficulties for consumers in accessing credit.

• Debt Payment Concerns: An increasing number of Americans fear they will miss debt payments, reflecting growing financial insecurity.

China's Economic Woes & Stimulus Efforts: China's economic troubles continue to escalate, with deflationary pressures mounting and stimulus efforts proving ineffective.

• Deflationary Shock: China faces a growing deflationary shock, with falling producer prices, declining wages, and weak consumer spending.

• Real Estate Crisis: China's real estate crisis continues to weigh on the economy, leading to local government debt problems and reduced land sales revenues.

• Stimulus Skepticism: Markets are skeptical about the effectiveness of China's latest stimulus efforts due to a lack of concrete details and previous failures of similar programs.

• Export Slowdown: China's export growth slowed sharply in September 2024, suggesting weakening global demand for Chinese goods.

• Weak Loan Growth: The outstanding stock of bank loans in China hit a record low growth rate, signaling a reluctance to lend and invest within the economy.

Interest Rate Policies & Central Bank Actions: Central banks worldwide are scrambling to react to the slowing economy, but their actions are raising more questions than answers.

• Synchronized Rate Cuts: Central banks around the world are accelerating their rate cut schedules in response to slowing inflation and economic weakness.

• Bank of Canada: The Bank of Canada surprised markets with a 50 basis point rate cut in response to falling inflation and a softening labor market.

• ECB Rate Cuts: The ECB accelerated its rate cut timeline, lowering rates in October despite earlier plans to wait until December.

• Fed Rate Cuts: The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points in September, but some speculate they may regret the move due to a single strong payroll report. However, other data and the Fed's own Beige Book suggest ongoing economic weakness.

• Questioning Central Bank Relevance: The synchronized actions of central banks raise questions about the relevance of national monetary policy in a globally interconnected economy. Some suggest interest rates could be set by market mechanisms instead.

Market Signals & Trends: Market indicators are flashing red, reflecting a growing sense of pessimism and concern about the future.

• Copper/Gold Ratio: The copper/gold ratio has fallen below 0.01% for the first time in years, signaling growing economic pessimism and potential recessionary risks.

• Interest Rate Swap Spreads: Interest rate swap spreads continue to hit record lows, indicating expectations of lower growth, lower inflation, and persistently low interest rates.

• Treasury Bills: Treasury bill yields remain relatively stable, suggesting the market anticipates further rate cuts despite recent increases in longer-term treasury yields.

• Automaker Credit Spreads: Credit spreads for automakers are rising in the bond market, reflecting investor concerns about the sector's weakening sales and financial outlook.

The message from the Beige Book is clear: the US economy is not as healthy as the "soft landing" narrative suggests. The real story is one of slowing growth, mounting anxieties, and a potential recession looming on the horizon.

Company-Specific Issues from Eurodollar University Transcripts (October 16-24, 2024)

Here's a breakdown of company-specific issues identified in the Eurodollar University transcripts:

ASML (Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturer):

• Significant Bookings Drop: Q3 2024 bookings plunged by over 50% compared to the previous quarter, significantly missing analyst expectations.

• Demand Concerns: This drop indicates a major shift in global chip demand, with customers expressing uncertainty about their own clients' needs.

• Revised Revenue Forecast: ASML trimmed their 2025 revenue forecast from 30-40 billion euros to 30-35 billion euros, reflecting reduced growth expectations in the semiconductor fabrication market.

• Gradual Recovery Anticipation: ASML's CEO now anticipates a more gradual recovery in the chip market than previously expected, extending into 2025.

LVMH (Luxury Goods Conglomerate):

• Revenue Decline: Q3 2024 revenues declined 3% year-over-year, marking their first revenue drop since 2020.

• Weakening Demand: This decline reflects a weakening in high-end consumer spending, indicating caution among even top-income earners.

• Misleading Statements: LVMH issued intentionally vague statements downplaying the revenue decline and attributing it to an "uncertain economic and geopolitical environment," attempting to mask the severity of the global economic downturn.

Intel (Semiconductor Manufacturer):

• Cost-Saving Measures: Intel announced radical cost-saving measures, including laying off at least 15,000 employees, indicating struggles in the semiconductor market.

• Weak Demand Impact: These measures are driven by weak demand for chips, as Intel acknowledges difficulty selling existing inventory.

Ally Financial (Financial Services Company):

• Rising Loan Losses: Ally Financial is experiencing a surge in loan losses, particularly in their auto loan portfolio.

• Tightened Lending Criteria: They have tightened lending standards for auto loans, increasing verification requirements for employment and income, suggesting growing financial distress among consumers.

• Elevated Charge-offs: Retail auto net charge-offs are at 2.24%, considered elevated by Ally's management.

• Lowered Net Interest Margin Forecast: Ally has lowered its net interest margin forecast due to the challenging economic environment and tighter lending practices.

Bank of America (Financial Institution):

• Declining Net Income: Bank of America reported a 12% year-over-year decline in net income, citing rising expenses and higher loan losses.

• Increased Loan Loss Provisions: Their loan loss provision was $1.53 billion in Q3 2024, up from $931 million in the year-ago period, reflecting growing credit concerns.

• Declining Net Interest Income: Net interest income fell 2.9% year-over-year to $14.1 billion, indicating pressure from falling interest rates.

JP Morgan Chase (Financial Institution):

• Flat Net Interest Income Growth: Net interest income at JP Morgan Chase grew by only 3% year-over-year, with growth excluding the market segment at a mere 1%.

• Expected Net Interest Income Decline: The company forecasts a slight decline in net interest income to $22.9 billion in the coming quarter.

• Rising Charge-offs: Net charge-offs in Q3 2024 reached $2.1 billion, with an additional $1 billion added to their net loss reserve, primarily driven by credit card losses.

Citigroup (Financial Institution):

• Below-Expectation Net Interest Income: Citigroup's net interest income of $13.36 billion fell below expectations and was down 3% year-over-year.

• Sharply Higher Loan Losses: Loan losses jumped to $2.7 billion in Q3 2024, up from $1.8 billion in the same period last year, driven by higher credit card charge-offs.

CSX (Railroad Company):

• Lower-Than-Expected Revenue: CSX reported lower-than-expected Q3 2024 revenue due to declining demand for coal, metals, fertilizer, and cars.

• Weak Automotive Market: The company specifically cited automotive markets as a significant weak spot, impacted by diminished consumer demand.

PPG Industries (Paint Manufacturer):

• Trimmed Sales and Earnings Outlook: PPG Industries lowered their full-year organic sales and earnings outlook due to a slump in automotive production in the US and Europe.

Volkswagen (Auto Manufacturer):

• Job and Production Cuts: Volkswagen announced job and production cuts in Germany for the first time in its history, citing weak demand and a lack of recovery in Europe's car market.

• Reduced Sales Expectations: They expect annual European car sales to remain at around 14 million vehicles, significantly below pre-pandemic levels of 16 million.

Ford (Auto Manufacturer):

• Implied Financial Issues: While not explicitly named, Ford is likely facing similar challenges as other automakers due to the weakening demand and broader industry struggles.

General Motors (Auto Manufacturer):

• Implied Financial Issues: Similar to Ford, General Motors is also implicitly included in the discussions about the auto industry's woes, suggesting they are experiencing comparable difficulties.

These company-specific issues highlight the breadth and depth of the current economic slowdown, impacting diverse industries across the globe. The consistent theme across these reports is weakening demand, rising financial distress among consumers, and growing concerns about the future economic outlook.